Rate Hike Odds

The fed funds futures has somewhat shifted its rate hike odds in response to the big upside surprise to Nov payrolls. By the June meeting there is now a 66% chance of a 25 bps rate hike up from 34% yesterday. There is now a 100% chance of a 25 bps hike by the Aug meeting priced in up from 86% yesterday and there is also a 20% chance the Fed raises by 50 bps by Aug. Looking at the Sept contract, there is a 72% chance of a total of 50 bps in hikes up from 34% yesterday.

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