As we celebrate the one year birthday of the current bull market, a key characteristic that still looms one year in is the lack of conviction and confidence in the economic outlook for those on Main Street versus the more optimistic view of those who work on Wall Street. I mentioned earlier today that in the Feb NFIB small business optimism index, those small businesses that “expect a better economy” fell to the lowest since March ’09. Those that think its a “good time to expand” fell to the lowest since June ’09. Those that “plan to increase inventory” fell to within 1 pt of the lowest since March ’09. Also today, the March Investors Business Daily Economic Optimism index (which claims a “good track record of foreshadowing the UoM and Conference Board confidence #’s) fell to its lowest level since March ’09, falling 1.4 pts from Feb. The Personal Financial Outlook component fell to the lowest since Feb ’09.
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