Wall Street Still (Always) Too Bullish

Barron’s Alan Abelson points us to a rather intriguing — and sadly, none too surprising — data point:

“Week in, week out, Bloomberg taps Street analysts for their prognostications of where they expect the S&P 500 to wind up the year. Despite the turmoil in the markets, those stalwarts—13 of them—have steadfastly held to their prophecies. They labor for Deutsche Bank, UBS, JPMorgan, Oppenheimer, HSBC, Bank of America, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, RBS, Barclays, Bank of Montreal, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.

After glancing over this sterling cadre and their predictions, we can report that their expectations vary rather widely. The most bullish is looking for a gain of around 26% and the least bullish one of nearly 8%. The S&P, incidentally, closed on Friday at 1091.60.

What really caught our eye, though, is that not a single one of these worthies was bearish. Which strikes us, of course, as enormously depressing.”

Amazing . . .


Beware the Long Tail
Barron’s, June 12, 2010

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