Payrolls miss but could have been worse

June payrolls grew by 83k in the private sector, below expectations of 110k but the market was set up for more of a disappointment with a 5% decline in the S&P’s and the 13k print out of ADP. The headline figure fell by 125k because of a 198k job decline in the Fed’l Govt with most being census workers. The two prior month #s were revised higher by 25k. Manufacturing jobs were up but below the estimate. Temp jobs rose by 21k. The unemployment rate fell to 9.5% from 9.7% and below the forecast of 9.8% as the 301k decline in Household Employment was more than offset by a drop of 652k in the labor force, thus the rate fell not because of a pick up in job gains. U6 fell .1% to 16.5%. The median duration of unemployment rose to 25.5 weeks from 23.2 and a poor indictor of the state of the labor market. Also disappointing was a .1% drop in hourly earnings and a .1 drop in weekly hours. The B/D model added 147k, 14k more than 1 yr ago.

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