Expiration, rebalancing, technicals and Ireland

With quad witch expiration and the quarterly S&P rebalancing today, consolidated NYSE volume may actually be above 4b shares for the 1st time since Sept 1st. It was back on July 16th the last time we saw volume above 5b. Confusion begets inaction. Strength in tech in the early goings will have the SPX testing the mid June intraday and early Aug highs and the ‘trading range’ market will be put to the test. Keep an eye on Ireland still as 5 yr CDS are just shy of a record high and their bonds again are trading terribly with the 10 yr yield above 6% now at around 6.10%, the highest since 1997. If this level persists, Ireland needs to weigh this high level of funding costs vs the 5% level they can borrow from the EU/IMF in what would be bailout #2 in Western Europe. Ireland is no Greece as their CDS is less than half but the situation is becoming more dicey.

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