While most of us are expecting another round of Fed pump priming on Nov 3rd, non voting member Lockhart last night said “For me, personally, it is not a foregone conclusion that more accommodation is required.” The US$ and gold today think there is no doubt and believes it’s a fait accompli as long as Bernanke is running the Fed. The CRB RIND rose to a record last night for a 2nd day. According to the MBA, the avg 30 yr mortgage rate fell to a new low of 4.38% but refi’s fell for a 4th straight week to a 7 week low (otherwise known as, the law of diminishing returns). Purchases rose 2.4%. The private sector weighted Chinese manufacturing PMI rose 1 pt to a 4 month high but Chinese stocks were little changed. The Q3 Japanese Tankan manufacturing index rose 7 pts to +8, 1 pt above forecasts and the Yen is up for the 7th day in the past 8. II: Bulls 43.3 v 41.4 Bears 27.8 v 29.3, bulls highest since mid May, bears at 7 week low.

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