Philly Fed big upside in contrast to NY

In stark contrast to the much weaker than expected NY survey out on Monday, the Nov Philly Fed survey was well above expectations at 22.5 vs the forecast of 5 and up from 1.0 on Oct. It’s at the best level since Dec ’09. New Orders jumped to 10.4 from -5. The Employment index went to 13.3 from 2.4 and the Average Workweek rose almost 17 pts to +10.9. Order backlogs rose to 3.7 from -8.9 and Inventories rose 12.7 pts to -5.9. Prices Paid rose 2.5 pts to 34, the best since May and Prices Received rose 7 pts but remained negative at -2.1. The 6 month outlook also improved to 49 from 41, the highest since March. Bottom line, there is nothing to quibble with in this data point as the improvement was broad based but on the heels of the very negative NY #, let’s see some more regional surveys and a reconciled ISM before jumping to conclusions. With this said, most of the economic data, ex housing, does continue to slowly improve.

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