Payrolls weak, recovery remains bumpy

Nov payrolls rose just 39k, well below the consensus of a gain of 150k and the private sector added just 50k. The upward revision to the prior 2 mo’s was 38k. The private sector added 50k vs the estimate of 160k. The unemployment rate rose .2% to 9.8% as the household survey said 173k jobs were lost just as 103k were added to the labor force. The all in rate is 17%. Manufacturing shed 13k jobs vs an expected add of 5k and construction lost 5k. The service sector added 65k, the lowest since June as gains in temp help, education/health and leisure barely offset a fall in retail and financial. Also disappointing was no gain in avg hourly earnings. The avg duration of unemployment fell a touch and the avg workweek was unchanged. Net-net, the markets have gotten very excited over the past few weeks on the improving data and today was a bit of a slap to those hopes. With this said, the economy continues to recover but the path will remain very bumpy.

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