Did the Russell 2000 predict the better than expected ADP?

Global Macro Monitor produces informed opinion about markets and the global economy. This was originally published on January 5, 2011


Did you notice the better than expected ADP employment report this morning.  It was the largest monthly jump ever in this report, with most of the jobs created in small and medium sized businesses?

Recall we wrote on January 3rd the 25 percent increase in the Russell 2000 was signaling a better than expected 2011 jobs market, which we based, in part, on the remarkable below chart of the Russell 2000 and nonfarm employment.

MarketWatch writes,

Private-sector employment gained 297,000 in December, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s employment report released Wednesday. Employment in the service-producing sector rose 270,000, the largest monthly increase on record.

The downside to employment is the “depression economics”  of state and local governments, who are having difficulty negotiating wage and benefit flexibility with their public sector unions in order to save jobs, and where layoffs loom wide and large.

A stronger than expected jobs recovery has big implications for equities, bonds, commodities, and the dollar.    We highly recommend you read our full piece.  Click here.


See also:
Russell 2000 Doubling S&P 500 as Economy Drives Rally – Bloomberg
Betting on a Jobs Recovery, Christie, and Brown

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