Is Equity Sentiment Really Over-Bullish?

Sentiment indicators from the AAII (individual investors) and Investors Intelligence (newsletter writes) indicate that stock market sentiment is at historically high levels, and has been for a while. However, whenever I discuss stock markets with people – ranging from private investors to institutions to journalists – most of them seem to be more concerned about a looming correction in the near term than being bullish. Maybe it is just a question of communicating with different people from those participating in the surveys, but anecdotally I do not observe particularly bullish sentiment.

Let’s put this to the test and do a snap poll among the readers of Investment Postcards to determine their equity sentiment. I have kept this very simple and am following the AAII format by giving only three choices on a six-month view: bullish, neutral or bearish. I realize this is quite unscientific but it will make for direct comparison with the AAII results and that is what I would like to test. Just play along and click the appropriate button on the poll image below. The poll will run until 22:00 EST on Saturday, January 16, 2011, after which the results will be reported on the blog.

Online Surveys & Market Research

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