Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI. He is not an economist. But all he hass done for 20 years is study recessions and recoveries. At ECRI, they make economic forecasts based on our leading indexes, none of it is based on the regressions, correlations or econometric models that drive most of the forecasts you hear about.
This deck shows that the recovery has actually followed classic cyclical patterns. But a consistent problem is that policy makers have been chronically behind the curve at every turn, and this is getting increasingly dangerous.