Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (4.15.11)

Succinct summation of week’s events


1) Retail Sales in March were good, notwithstanding rising gasoline and food prices
2) NY mfr’g survey in April rises to 1 yr high but with rising prices paid and received
3) Apr UoM confidence bounces 2 pts from lowest level since Nov ’09 with still elevated 1 yr inflation expectations
4) China reports stronger than expected Q1 GDP, retail sales and IP but also higher than forecasted CPI and PPI
5) Singapore tightens policy to fend off higher import prices


1) US CPI rises 2.7% y/o/y, most since Dec ’09 and Import Prices rise 9.7% y/o/y
2) Initial Jobless Claims rise back above 400k for the 1st time since early March
3) Higher than expected trade deficit and lower than expected rise in business inventories send Q1 GDP forecasts down to around 2%
4) NFIB small business optimism index falls to 5 month low as price pressures rise, and plans to hire, expectations of better economy and better sales fall. Cap ex component did rise
5) Soft start to Q1 earnings season as seen with AA, JPM, GOOG and BAC
6) Yields in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain all rise as clock ticks on inevitable timing of Greek debt restructuring. Greek 2 yr yield up 225 bps on the week and CDS goes to record high
7) Gold at record high, direct indictment of Fed policy

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