Just as AAPL always beats, AA always misses

If there is one guarantee in earnings season it’s that AAPL will beat estimates. If there is a 2nd guarantee, it’s that AA will miss and thus investors are not extrapolating anything to the rest of the market today from what Alcoa delivered. However, the demand drop they saw from Europe will be felt elsewhere. Today, European Commission Pres Barroso will unveil their proposals for bank recaps, another Greek debt restructuring and the functioning of the EFSF. With respect to the competing vision of how to recap one’s banks, after hearing comments from the French Budget Minister, the French seem to be coming around to what the German’s want. That is, private sector involvement first, followed by gov’t help if needed and not firstly going to the EFSF. Slovakia will likely vote within days to finally approve the EFSF in return for a new gov’t. The Shanghai index, in a delayed response to the Chinese gov’t buying its own bank stocks, rose 3%. In the US, purchase apps rose 1.1% and refi’s were up 1.3%. II: Bulls 34.4 v 34.4, holding at lowest since Aug ’10. Bears 46.3 v 45.2, highest since Mar ’09 when it got into the 50’s

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