Confidence grows at holiday time

Holiday cheers in the preliminary Dec UoM confidence figure where it rose to 67.7 from 64.1, the best since June and compares with expectations of 65.8. Confidence is back to in line with the average ytd of 67.2. The bulk of the improvement was in the Economic Outlook component which rose to 61.1 from 55.4 as Current Conditions were up just .3 pts to 77.9. Likely mostly due to the lowest level of gasoline prices since Feb (since consumers see the prices everyday), one year inflation expectations fell to 3.1% from 3.2%, the lowest since Dec ’10. Bottom line, its good timing to have an improvement in confidence as we are in holiday season but whether the individuals called over the phone in this survey are watching the headlines out of Europe or not won’t be noted until 2012 when the recession there impacts us here.

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