Buying the 49er Breakout….

Though the Giants are closer to the New York Fed’s printing press, which can make magic happen,  fix almost anything, and more powerful than steroids, we’re buying the 49er breakout.   We do confess, however, our affinity for the team of the town we once lived and our love for Eli,  but the fundamentals and technicals are just too strong for San Francisco.

First,  adding 1 (more victory) to 49 sums to 50,  which is a key Fibonacci ratio level.   This is somewhat neutralized as the Giants will be playing in their 31st postseason, an NFL record, and their 19th championship game, which also sums to 50.

Second,  the 49er 50-day moving average broke above its 200-day generating the classic Golden Cross buy signal this week.   This is especially powerful when it moves through such a tight channel as the Golden Gate and we expect this combination to generate an explosive third wave in the fourth quarter, which could really give a boost to team confidence.   Niner fans are well trained and can  do an excellent wave on all three levels.

Finally, quarterback, Alex Smith, who has done nothing for 49er investors for several years had his breakout performance last week against the Saints.   This was confirmed on Friday by a breakout move of another long-term dog,  Microsoft, which was up almost 6 percent.   Thus, we are picking the 49ers to beat the Giants by 6 points.

Conversely,  Eli Manning is a bit overbought, coming off a career season and his first 300-yard postseason game, throwing for 330 yards against the Packers last week.  This looks like the formation of a Long Island Top to us.

The only real risk we see to a 49er victory is that Greece and its creditors don’t strike a deal by kickoff.   S&P futures could fall sharply and expectations that the Fed will announce a QE3 next week might give the Giants a boost.   This may be offset a bit as we believe next week’s close of the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng in the first part of the week due to the New Year holiday is 49er positive.

Now how’s that for some Moneyball?   We dare you to prove us wrong if the 49ers win,  especially by 6 points.   Cheers to a hard hitting injury free game.

TV and Radio Calls of Vernon Davis’ Touchdown vs. Saints 1/14/12

(click here if video is not observable)

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