Whether weather give back or not, April jobs disappoint

ADP said the private sector only added 119k jobs in April, well below expectations of 170k, down from 201k in March and the slowest gain since Sept ’11. The service sector was where all of the growth occurred as 123k jobs were added. The goods producing sector lost 4k jobs led by a 5k drop in manufacturing and also in construction. As has been the case, small and medium sized businesses were the main source of service sector job adds. Bottom line, because we’ve seen the weather distort for the better the winter month’s data, it will take a few more months to get past the possible give back we’re seeing now. Job gains in Nov were 226k, Dec totaled 267k, 182k in Jan, 230k in Feb and 201k in Mar and with the poor April figure, the 6 month avg is 204k. Friday’s Payroll estimate, obviously before the ADP release, is 161k, 167k of which is from the private sector. The 10 yr note yield is falling to 1.90%, the lowest since Feb, in response to the disappointing report. A weak figure on Friday will start the calls again for more Fed action unfortunately without any acknowledgement by some that all the previous action hasn’t helped at all.

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