Romney’s Odds Ramp on Deteriorating Employment Data

One caveat: Prediction Markets like Intrade have a rather spotty track record (see this, this this, and this).


Check out the trading at Intrade right around the employment data released this morning.  The odds of Romney winning the November election ramped about 3 percentage points right after the jobs number was released.

Rahm Emmanuel in an interview with Bloomberg  couldn’t have framed the current election better,

“I don’t think Mitt Romney is the president’s opponent — the economy is.

Note the charts show the probabilities of winning the Presidency in November.   The trading  may be subject to politically motivated “tape painting” and manipulation.

(click here if charts are not observable)

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