Chart via Calculated Risk
The Housing Recovery is awesome — until you actually look at the sales data.
Then, not so much.
The NAR notes that “Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts – accounted for 25 percent of June sales (13 percent were foreclosures and 12 percent were short sales), unchanged from May but down from 30 percent in June 2011.”
Hence, a huge drop in distressed sales pressuring prices (which would have caused even more distressed sales) is an artificial benefit of the voluntary foreclosure abatements — which have now ended.
The present RRE situation can be best described as massive Fed stimulus + government induced foreclosure abatements = some stabilization.
Anything beyond that statement falls between wishful thinking and a guess. . .
Existing-Home Sales Constrained by Tight Supply in May, Prices Continue to Gain
NAR, June 21, 2012