ADP job gains

ADP said 162k private sector jobs were created in Sept, 22k more than expected and follows 189k in Aug which was revised down by 12k. Even with the revision to Aug though, 189k still is well above what the Gov’t reported last month of 103k for the private sector. Of the 162k job gain, 144k came from the services sector and 18k from goods producing with small and median sized businesses adding most of the jobs as usual. Manufacturing added 4k jobs and 10k came from construction. Bottom line, while the 162k job gain was the smallest in 4 months, it was better than feared and points to a continued steadiness in the unemployment rate. The caveat though is job growth is a lagging indicator and will the slowdown in economic growth in part due to very limited visibility slow this pace further. In terms of the market response, ADP has lost its month to month relationship to the Gov’t Payroll figure and thus makes today’s market move possibly completely different from this Friday. Before today’s Sept release, ADP said the avg job gains Jan thru Aug was 172k while the Payroll reports said 151k. After further revisions to both though over time, the data should converge.

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