Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (11/16/12)

Succinct summation of week’s events:


1) Congressional leaders say they had constructive meeting at WH. We’ll get deal but don’t expect a good one in terms of dealing with the real drivers of debt/deficits and incentivizing economic activity.
2) Sept Business Inventories rise .7% vs est of .6% and I/S ratio falls to 1.28 from 1.29. Expect inventory ramp up in the Northeast post hurricane.
3) Oct PPI unexpectedly falls .2% both headline and core.
4) MBA said refi’s rose 13.1% and purchases up by 11%, both to 4 week high as rates hover near record lows.
5) NFIB small business optimism index up a touch to 93.1, a 5 month high but still below high for yr of 94.5.
6) India reports slowest rate of wholesale inflation in 8 months at still high 7.45%.


1) Hurricane Sandy negatively impacts Jobless Claims, Industrial Production and the NY and Philly mfr’g figures.
2) Oct Retail Sales, also impacted by storm, unexpectedly down by .1% at the core.
3) CPI index at new record high with headline up 2.2% y/o/y, highest since Apr. Seems benign but not relative to income growth and its still remaining sticky.
4) Fed hints at QE4. They still don’t get it.
5) Japan’s gov’t calls for new elections where new leader will follow path of printing way to prosperity (though will be good for Japanese stocks).
6) Japan’s GDP in Q3 contracts by 3.5% annualized.
7) Chinese loan growth in Oct totals 505b yuan, 85b less than expected and slowest since Sept ’11, M2 growth slightly below est as new leadership takes over. Shanghai index closes just shy of lowest since Mar ’09.
8) India’s IP falls .4% vs est of up 2.8%.
9) Q3 GDP in Hong Kong up by 1.3% vs est of 1.7%.
10) German ZEW investor confidence in their economy 6 mo’s out falls almost 4 pts to -15.7, below zero for 6th straight month.
11) Euro zone economy contracts .1% m/o/m and hasn’t grown in a yr (modest growth in Germany and France completely offset).
12) Euro zone CPI up 2.5% y/o/y, above 2% ECB target for 23rd straight month.
13) UK jobless claims rise at fastest pace since Sept ’11, CPI up 2.7% to 5 mo high and retail sales weak. BoE Gov King acknowledges stagflation.

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