Withholding-Tax Collections Steady in October

Matt Trivvisanno gives us the early look at tomorrow’s NFP data via withholding data:

“Over the past three weeks, the year-over-year growth rate of federal withholding-tax collections was a respectable 4.72%. Using a longer period for comparison on the chart:


Source: Daily Jobs Update

You can see that the surge that we saw in August and September has ended (look at the red line). However, the data has not gone into decline, so there does not appear to be any cause for alarm. Perhaps retailers are not staffing-up quite as much for the holiday shopping season this year. Maybe they are expecting Amazon.com to take share. In any case, things look steady and there should not be any nasty surprises in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.


Source: Daily Jobs Update

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