A quick note on some of our commentary in April — it has been an interesting month for TBP.
On April 9th, I mentioned that the Great Rotation theme was incorrect: It was not stocks into bonds, as is so commonly claimed. Rather, it was a New Great Rotation: Commodities into Bonds. Since then, Bond yields have plummeted and gold has collapsed. Had I followed my own insights and put on a Gold short/Bond Long trade, it would have made some money. Alas, we are investors not traders.
This led to a comment asking the question: What Are Gold’s Fundamentals ? Most of the Gold investors I see have a flawed understanding of what drives gold prices. That was followed with World’s Biggest ETF/Contrarian Indicator: GLD > SPY. As far as contrary indicators go, this was similar to Pimco Total Return Bond Fund surpasses Vanguard S&P500 fund to become the largest mutual fund back in October 2002.
We did a few interviews as to why Gold was collapsing, including this one on BNN (Gold country). It is nuanced, and apparently not what people were expecting.
This all culminated in yesterday’s 12 Rules of Goldbuggery — which went totally viral.
Back shortly . . .
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