Wall Street Economists = Consistently Wrong on 10-year Rate

Torsten Sløk of Deutsche Bank Securities calls out Wall Street’s bad forecasts on the 10 year bonds:

As we leave 2014 behind, professional forecasters are once again predicting that long rates will go up next year. As the chart below shows, this has been a pattern for the past decade. The latest Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters predicts that ten-year rates in 2015 will go up to 3%, see the last dotted line in the chart. Subtracting the average 12-month forecast error of 60bps from that number suggests that another estimate of where ten-year rates will be by the end of 2015 is 2.4%.


Source: Deutsche Bank Securities


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