Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 1/23/15

Succinct Summations week ending January 23rd

Positives:

1. ECB to start a QE of their own; 60 billion a month until September 2016 and markets around the world explode higher
2. Housing starts rose 4.4% in December to an annualized pace of 1.09mm coming in much stronger than the 1.2% and 1.02mm expected.
3. The German Dax hit all-time highs.
4.  The Dow and S&P 500 have their first positive week of 2015

Negatives:

1. Real yields in parts of the world go negative.
2. Existing home sales in 2014 fell 3.1%
3. NAHB Homebuilder sentiment fell to 57, vs expectations of 58.
4. China GDP rose 7.4% in 2014, from 7.7% in 2013.
5. Building permits declined 1.9% to a pace of 1.03mm, both weaker than expected.
6. Existing home sales rose in December by 2.4% vs expectations for a 3% rise.
7. Initial jobless claims came in at 307k vs 300k expected.

 

 

 

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  1. Willy2 commented on Jan 23

    “1. ECB to start a QE of their own; 60 billion a month until September 2016 and markets around the world explode higher”

    Nope. I DO NOT consider this to be a “Positive” !!!!!! To see why one has to look at what this QE did to the 3 major world currencies (EUR, USD & Yen). I consider this to be a “Negative” !!!!!

    • slowkarma commented on Jan 23

      What, no mention of “inflate-gate?” Although, I’ll concede that whether it’s a positive or a negative might depend on your location.

      Have you noticed in the coverage that all the reporters talked to quarterbacks, but not to receivers or ball carriers, for whom a softer ball might be more important? Is it simple incompetence, or is it a media conspiracy? In either case, I blame Thatcher. And Bush. Either one.

    • Willy2 commented on Jan 23

      One has to know what the drivers are behind the movements of the 3 major currencies. If one has a knowledge of that then one knows why a drop of the EUR against the Yen & USD is a “negative” and why a drop of the USD and/or Yen are a “positive”. If one looks at currency movements since say 2001 then one certainly can see a pattern. And currently a EUR going down is merely re-inforcing the already existing trend. And I do think the ECD, FED & BoJ are fully aware of this.

      No, I don’t mention the word inflation because that’s NOT the main concern of central bankers right now.

      I also see a connection with the upcoming elections in Greece.

    • Willy2 commented on Jan 23

      One has to know what the drivers are behind the movements of the 3 major currencies. If one has a knowledge of that then one knows why a drop of the EUR against the Yen & USD is a “negative” and why a drop of the USD and/or Yen are a “positive”. If one looks at currency movements since say 2001 then one certainly can see a pattern. And currently a EUR going down is merely re-inforcing the already existing trend. And I do think the ECD, FED & BoJ are fully aware of this.

      No, I don’t mention the word inflation because that’s NOT the main concern of central bankers right now.

      I also see a connection with the upcoming elections in Greece.

    • VennData commented on Jan 24

      LOL Willy,

      You sound like the red-faced guys who were pissed off about the record DAX shouting on CNBC that “Investors aren’t benefitting!” Because of the Euro slide. Well these short termers need to realize that Europe will heal, they can’t predict when it will happen, and high stocks in Germany means more investment, more capitalism, and more dividends from patient, long term investors.

      BR is right, it’s a positive, and the markets agree.

  2. pielou commented on Jan 23

    So what is the difference between ECBQE, USQE and JPQE? is there a beautiful digital media accessible for clueless like me?

    • VennData commented on Jan 24

      America’s worked. Japan and Europe just started.

  3. VennData commented on Jan 24

    I think Chinese growth of 7.4% is a positive. Anything higher is unsustainable. Their manufacturing is stagnant. Which is not great for their manufacturers, but great for the rest of the world’s.

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