Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 1/30/15

Succinct Summations week ending January 30rd

Positives:

1. Weekly jobless claims fell 43,000 to 265,000, the lowest since 2000!
2. Apple reported a record breaking quarter as it sold 74.5 million iPhones
3. Personal consumption came in at 4.3% vs 4% expected.
4. Chicago PMI came in at 59.4 vs the 57.5 expected.
5.  U of Mich consumer confidence came in at 98.1, a hair below expectations but still strong and up from 93.6 in December.

Negatives:

1. US Q4 real GDP came in at 2.6% annualized vs 3% expected.
2. Durable goods fell 3.4% m/o/m, below expectations and down from the 2.1% decline in November.
3. The S&P 500 had back-to-back down months for the first time since 2012
4. Yields keep falling around here and around the globe; 30 year hits lowest yields ever.
5. Earnings season has not been kind to some of the biggest companies, including Caterpillar, Microsoft and Qualcomm.
6. Dallas fed manufacturing index came in at -4.4 vs 3 expected.
7. Germany, Europe’s largest economy fell 0.3% m/o/m, the first negative print since 2009.
8. The S&P 500 has moved in a range greater than 1% in all but two trading days in January, volatility is back.
9. Pending home sales fell 3.7% m/o/m

 

 

 

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. poly commented on Jan 30

    It has been a while since the “negative” column was so stacked…and with “meaningful” ones too.

  2. VennData commented on Jan 30

    Negative for the nation. Positive for Democrats for the next generation of elections. Congress still hasn’t done a thing to support out troops on ISIS.

    10/6/14…
    http://thehill.com/opinion/juan-williams/219775-juan-williams-congress-ducks-its-duty-on-isis-vote

    12/4/2014…
    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-congress-keep-putting-off-a-vote-on-the-war-on-isis/

    1/20/2014…
    http://chicago.suntimes.com/other-views/7/71/327147/huntley

    Anyone who still retains any belief that Obama isn’t reaching out is no credible.

    Where is the infrastructure? Where are the “First hundred days?” Where is Homeland security?

    http://dailysignal.com/2015/01/29/clock-ticking-homeland-security-chief-warns-congress-fund-agency/

    The GOP is a disorganized mess of selfish local pothole fillers.

  3. romerjt commented on Jan 30

    Shake Shack vs McDonalds — McD, game over, plan on closing marginal stores, forget about selling Big Macs AND some other “healthy” burger . . . people will not come to your store for that . . . the time when people didn’t care about what they ate unless it was “tasty” is over and that is/was your business. Dextrose in your fries – give me a break.

  4. Willy2 commented on Jan 30

    “Dallas fed manufacturing index came in at -4.4 vs 3 expected.”

    IMO – A tell tale sign of how the “energy patch” states are sinking (economically). Every job in the oil sector supports 3 jobs outside the “energy sector”. More unemployment up ahead ?

    “Yields keep falling around here and around the globe; 30 year hits lowest yields ever.”

    This is a “mixed bag”, so to speak. But I fear that we could see rates shoot/creep back up in the next months and then these low rates are certainly a “Negative” right now.

    • Concerned Neighbour commented on Jan 31

      It’s remarkable how how little the energy stocks have gone down. If we can believe price signals anymore (and we probably can’t), the “markets” are telling us that oil won’t stay this low for long.

  5. intlacct commented on Jan 30

    Multiple examples of the BS about Obama not reaching out but I can summarize it for you in two words:

    HEALTH CARE. All sane people wanted nationalized health care, Medicare for all (why isn’t there an age discrimination lawsuit there?), the public option, like every other civilized nation (every OECD nation, at least).

    Instead, O effectively adopted the Cato Institute’s, Bob Dole’s platform’s, Romneycare’s recommendation such that, in the words of one of its designers: “It’s the same f*ckin’ plan.”

    The media that continue to be dishonest about this are not doing their countrymen any service.

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