10 Friday AM Reads

The week that volatility returned draws to a close; Finish strong with our morning train reads:

• American economy blues: Everything you need to worry about (or not) (Fortune)
• Its easy to find reasons to sell; what’s hard is finding reasons not to — every single day (Behavioral Macro)
• A Dozen Things I’ve Learned from David Einhorn About Investing (25iq)
• Meet the author of one of Wall Street’s most-read blogs (Marketwatch)
• Science Isn’t Broken: It’s just a hell of a lot harder than we give it credit for. (FiveThirtyEight)

Continues here

 

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    • VennData commented on Aug 21

      See! This is the kind of “joke” that confuses people into thinking that the statistics about inequality are somehow something they should sit around the kitchen table worrying about.

      You NEED to worry about Clinton’s emails that got into the hands of our enemies and all the damage it did. This, I tell you will be the GOP investigation that FINNALY pays off.

    • willid3 commented on Aug 21

      or the Mexican invasion

      or IRAN

      or ISIS

      or taxes are high for job creators

      or regulations are to much for job creators

  1. VennData commented on Aug 21

    With the FBI Investigating Clinton’s Emails, Bernie Sanders Should Be Considered the Democratic Frontrunner

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-should-be-considered-the-democratic-frontrunner_b_8019264.html

    ​The GOP gets REWARDED for their bullshit investigations​.

    What utter nonsense. Liberals have the opportunity of a lifetime with Trump breaking the GOp apart and you’re all falling for the bullshit GOP investigations and the even more bullshit “Clinton narrative” nonsense.

    You deserve to lose the White House.

    • Liquidity Trader commented on Aug 21

      In New Hampshire, not nationally. New Hampshire is a small quirky state that does not represent the rest of the country well.

      BR is interviewing Nate Silver — ask him about this.

      ~~~

      ADMIN: BR says they discussed it at length !

  2. RW commented on Aug 21

    When even putative moderates in a major political party are anti-science but display increasing skill in masking it (above the fold at least) you might believe it’s time to pay better attention.

    Carly Fiorina did a 4-minute riff on climate change. Everything she said was wrong.

    The key to a ‘moderate’ Republican position on climate change is that it has to neutralize the science….
    So the trick for the aspiring Republican moderate is to acknowledge the scientific consensus on climate change while maintaining opposition to any policy that might penalize fossil fuels or advantage renewable energy…. Fiorina seems to have pulled it off, at least in the eyes of conservatives. There’s just one problem. After acknowledging the science at the outset, literally everything Fiorina says subsequently is false or misleading. And yes, I know what ‘literally’ means….

    • willid3 commented on Aug 21

      well you cant expect the public to be on favor of some thing if they only see higher costs to them. and job losses. which is what they hear a lot of. and those do get a lot of attention. even of they arent really true. its pretty much the same thing with the robots. in this case the GOP is all in favor of them, but having trouble getting their sheep to fall in line.
      its also easier to scare than reassure if no one points out what can be gained

      change is a scary thing. humans tend to want to stay the course until forced to change. it was the same when industrialization hit, and now we have the services changes plus the almost destruction of manufacturing (by robots). most of the ‘fear’ is generated because nobody knows what replaces the ‘old’ jobs. and its very hard to see where you are going if there is no place to go. back in the 30s and before but back then we went from agriculture to manufacturing (and even it wasnt exactly smooth). but the public sort of knew where we going even if it wasnt clear. now we have nothing that even looks like it can replace millions of jobs.

      but then climate thing is a little different. nobody really thinks it not happening. they just dont think we are the cause (cause its too big for us to do it. even if we have done it before like in the 1930s).
      even though all it takes (like the dust storms) is a little push from humans.,,to push some thing over the edge . but since the big troubles are a ‘long’ way off, we humans arent worried to much. yet. but the kids will see it (which makes you wonder about all the wailing about protecting them from taxes. or any thing else. guess its just a PR spin)

    • RW commented on Aug 21

      “… now we have nothing that even looks like it can replace millions of jobs.”

      Nothing? I can think of a few things right off the top of my head but the easiest is just do what the Germans did: Shorten the work week; full employment, wage-level maintained, more leisure time.

      As to robots I think a lot of folks don’t get the full business implication: They’re a fixed cost; if demand for whatever you are producing drops you can’t adjust by reducing their hours or laying them off.

    • willid3 commented on Aug 21

      well those are possibilities. but cutting hours without cutting wages wont fly with business will it? but if they would well then it would help (it is after all sort of what happened when we cut back to the 40 hour work week).
      and while its true that they will be a fixed cost, its a lot lower than the employee costs are. but then you can always turn them off couldnt you? not that it would help much. but you could also sell them too huh? course there is that problem of where demand will come from. unless robots start buying stuff too

    • Jojo commented on Aug 22

      Working less hours for the same pay would be great. But it isn’t going to happen. Management and investors are not going to buy into less work hours and therefore likely less productivity for the same amount of $$.

      So if your employer cuts your hours back as they deploy robots, do you think your landlord will reduce your rent proportionally? How about your bank with your mortgage? Or the supermarket? Or car dealers? etc. Very doubtful.

      This is the old between the rock and the hard place.

    • RW commented on Aug 22

      @Jojo, you must believe your response was substantive or you wouldn’t have taken the time to type it, but a flat, unsupported assertion that business people or landlords won’t or will do X is tendentious; it advances no argument in the absence of context.

      Humans are adaptive and what they adapt to are systems variables and sociocultural factors; e.g., if policy and law is structured to favor shorter work-weeks while maintaining low levels of unemployment and a living wage then that is what will tend to evolve and if it becomes an accepted cultural norm then that evolution is inevitable, the norm.

      Features of German Labor and Employment Law

      Relations between German employers and employees are extensively regulated under German labor and employment law. German labor and employment law is strongly biased in favour of employees and is probably best referred to as the “employee protection law”. Set out below are certain highlights of German labor and employment law: ….

      If that norm is maladaptive then the society will suffer either internally or to the degree it competes with other societies that do not share the norm except, ceteris paribus, that isn’t what necessarily happens.

      The Secrets of Germany’s Success

      …greater job security was afforded in large measure through a “short work” scheme: workers’ total number of hours were reduced to avoid layoffs, and the government covered part of their lost salaries. Approximately 1.5 million Germans were enrolled in the program at its peak, in May 2009, at a cost to the government of 4.6 billion euros that year alone. According to a 2009 report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the program saved approximately 500,000 jobs during the recent economic recession.

      Since the topic is systems that “ceteris paribus” clause is thorny because, of course, all things never are and there are clearly other reasons for Germany’s success besides its internal policies. But I wasn’t asserting that what worked for Germany would necessarily work elsewhere, only that it was one option among others. There are actually surprisingly few rocks and hard places in complex systems, mostly there are behavioral norms and habits some of which admittedly are very hard to break.

      At the risk of more oversimplification my point was this: Humans set policy and law, not robots; technology is a condition, a context, and if there are deleterious effects within that context then policies can address them wherever they are responsive to verifiable human needs and whenever the political will exists to do so.

      Parenthetically I’m obliged to add that, IMHO, the larger problem with the current state of our democracy is not the wisdom of the electorate, it is that the electorate is not being given good choices among which to chose.

    • rd commented on Aug 21

      You completely misunderstand what The Donald is doing. These are not employees he is importing under the H-1b program; instead these are potential future Mrs. Trumps. He is testing them to see if they have the necessary pre-requisites to fill that position, namely whether or not they exhibit sufficient entreprenurial spirit to make it on their own. Unfortunately, he has found that Americans generally do not possess the necessary skill set to be Mrs. Trump.

    • willid3 commented on Aug 21

      you mean they arent as tolerant, or submissive as he needs them to be? i,.e., they will divorce him?

    • willid3 commented on Aug 21

      unless its bombing ISIS or Iran Or the next flavor of the month?

  3. VennData commented on Aug 21

    Kudlow on CNBC said halving the corporate tax rates would double corporate earnings.

    Who believes?

    Raise your hand and promise not to vote, K?

  4. Jojo commented on Aug 21

    Why Jeff Bezos Should Care More for Amazon’s Employees
    AUG. 21, 2015
    Life@Work
    By TONY SCHWARTZ

    Dear Jeff Bezos,

    I spend my days working with the leaders of large companies to help them build cultures of sustainable high performance. My focus is on what it takes to unleash the best in people by better meeting their core needs – physical, emotional, mental and spiritual.

    The most consistent and pernicious obstacles I run up against at our client companies are the twin toxins of fear and fatigue.

    ….

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/business/dealbook/why-jeff-bezos-should-care-more-for-amazons-employees.html

    • Jojo commented on Aug 21

      —AND—

      Long work hours linked to 33 percent increase in stroke risk
      Higher risk of stroke, heart disease for those working 55 hours a week, compared to those working 40 hours, study finds

      August 20, 2015 3:15AM ET

      Working 55 hours or more per week is linked to an increased risk of stroke compared to a 35- to 40- hour work week, according to research published Thursday.

      In a review of 17 studies covering 528,908 men and women who were tracked for an average of 7.2 years, the longer work week was linked to one-third greater risk of strokes. The elevated risk remained even when smoking, alcohol consumption and level of physical activity were taken into account.

      The study, published in the journal The Lancet, found that people who worked between 41 and 48 hours weekly had a 10 percent higher stroke risk, while for those working 49 to 54 hours, the risk jumped by 27 percent as compared with people who logged a standard week.

      Working 55 hours or more a week increased the risk of having a stroke by 33 percent, the study showed.

      ….

      http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/8/20/long-work-hours-linked-to-higher-stroke-risk.html

    • intlacct commented on Aug 22

      Very cool of our guys. The Dutch and French are resigned to raising healthier wimps.

  5. VennData commented on Aug 21

    Ex-Ravens cheerleader pleads guilty to rape of boy, gets probation

    http://www.torontosun.com/2015/08/21/ex-ravens-cheerleader-pleads-guilty-to-rape-of-boy-gets-probation

    ​You can’t put the little lady in prison for this. What kind of society would we live in if the delicate flowers of womanhood were plucked after a mistaken yearning in the ole loins. Besides I’m sure the guy laid back and enjoyed. This isn’t an NFL thing, don’t try to make this an NFL. This is about making sure the nation’s moms are protected from flexing bruisers in tight dago tees prancing around in their – let’s admit it – overdeveloped bods.

    Free all the cheerleaders, in fact. give them Carte Blanche out of the Bastille free cards. They’re only females after all.

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