Succinct Summations of Week’s Events 10.02.15

Succinct Summations for the week ending October 2nd, 2015

Positives:

  1. Motor vehicle sales came in at 18.2mm, well above the 17.6mm expected.
  2. Consumer spending rose 0.4%, in line with forecasts.
  3. Core inflation rose 0.1%, in line with expectations.
  4. Case-Shiller home prices rose 5% y/o/y, slightly above the 4/9% expected rise.
  5. ADP employment came in at 200k, above the 186k expected.
  6. Markit PMI came in at 53.1, up from 53 previously.

Negatives:

  1. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 142k, well below the 200k expected.
  2. Pending home sales decreased 1.4%, down from 0.5% previously.
  3. Chicago PMI came in at 48.7, below the 54.5 expected.
  4. Weekly jobless claims came in at 277k, slightly above the 271k expected.
  5. ISM manufacturing came in at 50.2, down from 51.1 and slightly below expectations.
  6. Personal income rose 0.3%, below the 0.4% expected and down from 0.5% previously.
  7. Average hourly earnings were flat, versus a 0.1% expected rise.
  8. Factory orders fell 1.7%, down from 0.2% previously and below expectations.

 

Thanks, Mike!

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  1. Concerned Neighbour commented on Oct 2

    Looks like “markets” are back to treating bad news as good news, what with the violent 3% intraday reversal on speculation of a continued Fed put. Phew! S&P 500 2200-2300 by Christmas still very much in play as the bad news is likely to continue.

    On days like today I really wonder why they bother closing the “market”. When the diagonal up algos are fully in control, why not just leave it open? You’d have S&P 500 2200-2300 by Monday!

    Oh well, it looked for a moment there like “markets” might be allowed to trade on their own, which would have been nice for the few remaining investors out there. Now we’re back to plowing money into “blue chips” with negative tangible book, 20 P/E’s, and flattish revenue growth, in the hopes that central banks and buy backs will push them to 30 P/E’s. What fun.

    More “temporary, emergency stimulus” in perpetuity. Perhaps 7 more years will do the trick.

    (I would like to take credit for calling no rate increase and rumors of QE4 by the end of the year in January :) I very much wish I had been wrong. )

  2. intlacct commented on Oct 3

    While I have a lot invested, to minimize regret, I agree, Concerned Neighbor (sorry, it’ll take a court order to throw a meaningless ‘u’ in there). I think this is a major head fake and it won’t take long for jitters to return…

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