What Would It Take to Flip States From Red to Blue or Vice-Versa?

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Source: FiveThirtyEight

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Discussions found on the web:
  1. Expat commented on Dec 9

    College educations for one group and lobotomies for the other?

    • Iamthe50percent commented on Dec 9

      Ha! Ha! Move the non-college educated Whites to 75% R. Move both Hispanics and Asians to 98% D, which is higher than the black 93% D. See what happens. Move the non-college educated white participation rate up a little, move the black participation rate down to the other groups level (no Obama on the ticket) and you see a Republican landslide.

      Don’t be smug about 2016.

    • PrahaPartizan commented on Dec 10

      For the Republicans to get 75% of the non-college educated Whites to vote, the overall turnout would have to be less than the 58% number cited in the analysis. With the college educated white vote trending even further Democratic and the Black, Hispanic-Latino, Asian/Other categories voting along similar lines (60% turnout and 90% Democratic), the Republicans suffer a crushing defeat. Your analysis assumes that only the non-college educated White voters change their preference in the face of an openly xenophobic and racist Republican campaign as we have now.

  2. 4whatitsworth commented on Dec 9

    Most people have their mind made up and there is very little chance of changing it. That said a thinking person should consider what these charts mean to them.


    To be honest I am not sure switching parties would actually make much of a difference both parties have different rhetoric but their actions appear to be similar. I think we have big cultural issues to solve we are currently nothing like the generations that made the United States great. Maybe that is why this generation will fare worse than their parents. Ka sera sera.

  3. howardoark commented on Dec 9

    Carson could win pretty easily.

    • PrahaPartizan commented on Dec 10

      Yeah, but the question is “Win what?” It certainly isn’t the Presidency.

  4. cjb commented on Dec 10

    Iamthe50percent – You’re right. I consider my fellow Democratic voters smug and lacking street smarts. They don’t come out in non-presidential years, and now, many think the coming election is in the bag. They should be scared shitless… Republicans understand talk is cheap. You have to show up.

  5. Ephman commented on Dec 10

    Trump on the ticket and the college educated whites vote more Dem (I would hope)

    • PrahaPartizan commented on Dec 10

      The trend is that they vote more Democratic anyway. The only real question is how much more Democratic. Any of the leading Republican candidates would likely drive even some detachable Republican voters to choose the Democratic candidate, which is exactly what the Republican establishment is apparently panicking about now.

    • bigsteve commented on Dec 10

      I am one of the those detachable voters. I really do not like any of the Republican candidates. A Trump or Cruz winning the nomination would make me for sure vote Democrat. I might consider Bush or Kasich but only if they stand up to crazy. And abandon trickle down nonsense and tax cut but spend more policies.

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