How the Global Economy Played Out in 2015

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  1. rd commented on Jan 7

    In 1989 everybody in the US was panicking about Japan Inc. buying up the entire US and having cash left over to pick up Canada afterwards. However, then the Japanese demographics caught up and they are now largely just another trading partner.

    I have been watching the same level of rhetoric over China in the last few years. However, it is likely that their demographics are now starting to catch up to them now. It will be interesting to see if they are able to recover significant growth rates over the next few years.

    Neither Japan nor China have cultures that are welcoming to immigrants, so they can’t fix demographic burdens that way unlike the US and Canada.

    Interestingly, nobody seems to be talking about India. As far as I am aware, they are pretty much the only large country that has a young population. If they can manage to re-organize their government bureaucracies so that they can unleash real economic power, they could be the dominant emergent power over the next 30 years. That is a big IF though.

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