GDP and the Long Economic Cycle

GDP Growth Shows How Little Things Have Changed
There are three overarching issues worth remembering after last week’s economic report.
Bloomberg, July 30, 2018.

 

 

 

 

GDP data was released Friday, and while the data was a robust 4.1 percent, it was nowhere near “historic,” as the President claimed.

With mid-term elections 99 days away, it is no surprise it became a political instead of an economic debate. Lots of misinformation and questionable claims were proffered. I concur with Bret Stephens, the conservative columnist for the NYT, who wrote “Rule No. 1: Don’t argue with sunshine.

This was a good economic report, driven by a variety of factors. Our discussion today will focus on what GDP means for investors, analyzing the claims made, and what clues to watch for in future data releases. There are three key aspects of this many commentators seem to be overlooking:

1. This remains a post-credit crisis recovery:

2. Past quarters have been stronger;

3. Tax Cuts and Tariff impact are temporary

While POTUS claims this is an economic turnaround — its not, its a continuation of prior trend — lets dig deeper into what GDP means in terms of context . . .

 

 

 

Continues at Bloomberg

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