Bull Market Underperforms Post War Average

While everyone is so busy looking at whether or not this bull market is longest ever or not — I say not — let’s consider instead how strong the actual returns are.

You might be surprised to learn that when compared to the prior, post-World War II bull runs, this one is middling — it sits in the bottom half, ranking #8 out of all 12 of the runs we have enjoyed since the 1940s.

Shout out to Dave Wilson, who quotes Brian Belski, BMO Capital Markets’ chief investment strategist. Belski notes the S&P 500’s annual rate of change is two hundred basis points lower than that of the average, post-war bull markets.

Two caveats; there are many ways to determine the length of a bull market, and this methodology (looks like 20% reset) could have an impact. But second, and perhaps more importantly, is that the biggest gains of bulls are often their last spasms higher before the roll over. Thus, after this bull settles into the history book, it may move up the list . . .



Source: Bloomberg Radio’s Dave Wilson

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