Happy Halloween! My end-of-week morning Trick or Treat reads:
• 6 ways the shutdown is about to get worse: Programs ranging from Head Start to SNAP face new strain November 1. (Politico)
• Is it really a bubble? We’ll probably know in five years’ time. (Financial Times) see also This market analyst is an expert on stock bubbles. Here’s what he’s saying now. You’re right to worry — but it’s probably too early to be bearish. (Marketwatch) see also Why the AI Spending Spree Could Spell Trouble for Investors: As Big Tech pours trillions into AI infrastructure, history warns of overinvestment, shrinking returns, and rising risks. (Morningstar)
• The surprising reason home prices remain stubbornly high: A growing number of home sellers are taking lingering properties off the market instead of lowering their prices.Nationwide, delistings rose 52% in September compared to the year before, after peaking at a nearly 72% annual growth rate in August, according to fresh data from Realtor.com. That’s up from September 2024, when delistings rose 46%. (Washington Post)
• Rare Earths Producers Look to US-Led Boom to Blunt China’s Power: Even if a trade deal materializes, the industry is betting the world won’t want to go back to one supplier. (Bloomberg) see also Cowboy Diplomacy: Ranchers Reject Tariff Rhetoric: Cattlemen bristle at being treated as economic pawns. Protectionism is an insult to people who embody the mythos of American self-reliance. (Daily Economy)
• Boring Is What We Wanted: Apple silicon has been nothing but upside for the Mac, and yet some seem bored already. In the days since Apple announced the M5, I’ve seen and heard this sentiment more than I expected: This is just another boring incremental upgrade. That is the point. (512 Pixels)
• He Won the $2 Billion Powerball. Now He’s Buying Up Lots Burned in the L.A. Fires. Edwin Castro is one of the biggest investors snapping up destroyed properties—and he wants to lead in rebuilding his hometown of Altadena. (Wall Street Journal)
• America Doesn’t Have Enough Weapons for a Major Conflict. This Is Why. This summer, employees at several big defense companies went on strike. Their grievances highlight a much larger problem brewing beneath the surface. (Politico)
• New Report Finds Efforts to Slow Climate Change Are Working—Just Not Fast Enough: By virtually every key metric, efforts to fight climate change are going too slowly, according to findings by a coalition of climate groups. In some cases, things are moving in the wrong direction. (NOEMA)
• Historians Don’t Think a US Civil War Is Likely—but They’re Still Nervous: “The fabric of what binds America together at this point is basically on its final thread,” (Wired) see also Redistricting Wars: The President’s party loses seats in midterm elections (18 of the 20 since WWII). States redistrict once per decade following the Census & reapportionment. Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act requires the creation & maintenance of majority-minority districts. (Bruce Mehlman’s Age of Disruption)
• What’s Eating George Clooney? He’s having a career for the ages. He has two adorable kids, a brilliant and beautiful wife, plenty of money, and still has his hair. There’s just one problem. (Esquire)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Jon Hilsenrath of Serpa Pinto Advisory. Previously, he was chief economics correspondent for Wall Street Journal for 26 years. Dubbed the “Fed Whisperer” by Wall Street traders for his scoops on the FOMC, he worked out of Hong Kong, NY, and D.C. He was part of the Pulitzer Prize-winning team for on-scene coverage of 9/11. He is the author of “Yellen: The Trailblazing Economist Who Navigated an Era of Upheaval.”
These measures of housing stock availability point to a growing gap between supply and demand
Source: Goldman Sachs
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