My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:
• Three economists grabbed a beer. A multibillion-dollar industry was born. The origin of the predictive markets business can be traced to an Iowa City bar in 1988. (NBC News)
• Why a ‘K-Shaped’ Economy Means More Risk for Stock Investors: Analysts say a stumble in the stock market could spell trouble for consumer spending and economic growth. That makes for a fragile balance. (Morningstar) see also Gen Z, Locked Out of Home Buying, Puts Its Money in the Market: The share of young people transferring funds to investment accounts has climbed steeply over a decade (Wall Street Journal)
• Box Spreads as a Borrowing Alternative to Margin Loans and SBLOCs: Kitces breaks down how sophisticated investors are using options box spreads to borrow at near-Treasury rates — and why it’s becoming a serious alternative to margin loans and securities-backed lines of credit. (Kitces)
• Yale’s Famed Investing Model Falters at a Fraught Time for Colleges: Many copied the Ivy League school’s bets on private equity and other illiquid investments. Now, plain old stocks and bonds are outperforming. (Bloomberg)
• Target makes drastic workforce shift to fix customer experience: Target is making major workforce changes to improve the customer experience after recent controversies and CEO transition. (The Street)
• The Existential AI Threat Is Here — and Some AI Leaders Are Fleeing: Some of the people building the most powerful AI systems are starting to quietly step away, spooked by what they’re seeing. When the builders get scared, maybe the rest of us should pay attention. (Axios) but see Meet the One Woman Anthropic Trusts to Teach AI Morals: A profile of Amanda Askell, the philosopher shaping how Claude thinks about ethics. It turns out teaching an AI right from wrong is less about rules and more about judgment calls — not unlike raising a very fast child. (Wall Street Journal)
• The Robot Revolution Is Real. Tesla Stock and More Ways to Play It. Once the purview of science fiction, automatons are getting closer to reality. Humanoid robots are moving from sci-fi to factory floors, and Barron’s lays out the investment case across Tesla, Nvidia, and the automakers. (Barron’s)
• EPA Reverses Long-Standing Climate Change Finding, Stripping Its Own Ability to Regulate Emissions: The EPA reversed its endangerment finding on greenhouse gases — the legal foundation for virtually all federal climate regulation. The agency essentially declared it no longer believes its own science. (NBC News) see also Renewables Soar Globally Despite US Climate Pullback: The rest of the world is racing ahead on clean energy even as the U.S. pulls back. Global renewable capacity surged to record levels, and the economics keep getting harder to argue with. (Semafor)
• “You Up???” Inside Steve Bannon and Jeffrey Epstein’s Disturbingly Close Friendship The Epstein files reveal an 18-month alliance between Bannon and the disgraced financier built on mutual interest in shaping world events and politics, complete with hours of recorded interviews for a documentary that never materialized. The surprisingly cozy relationship between MAGA’s chief strategist and the convicted sex trafficker — including the texts. (Vanity Fair)
• The Lost Art of Sharing a Bottle: “When we opt out of rituals that foster closeness, we’re not just avoiding alcohol, we’re often avoiding connection itself. If staying home and not going out is weakening your social ties, that hurts you physiologically in other ways.” (Wine Enthusiast)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Heather & Doug Bonaparth, a married couple who work together and wrote a book on the financial challenges couples face: “Money Together: How to find fairness in your relationship and become an unstoppable financial team.” Our discussion sits somewhere in between financial planning and couples therapy, built around real stories that try to help couples find a healthier approach to money.
A bullish broadening, in which the mega caps take a rest while the broader market breaks out
Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments
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