My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:
• The Epstein Class: The real scandal isn’t that a billionaire cabal runs the world—it’s that there’s a billionaire class whose members are functionally above the law. A sharp structural analysis. (Dissent)
• Now and forever, a stockpicker’s market: Bessembinder’s data shows the median stock still underperforms T-bills. Only two-fifths of stocks beat cash.Given that half of the $91tn of net wealth created over the century comes from just 46 stocks, it’s almost surprising that as many as 28 per cent of stocks outperformed the market. The case for indexing has never been stronger—or more ignored. (Financial Times) see also How to Own The Best Stocks: Ben Carlson makes the elegant case that index funds are the simplest way to guarantee you own the market’s biggest winners. Baseline expectation was always that index funds would outperform something like 70-75% of actively managed funds. The SPIVA Scorecard shows over 10, 15 and 20 year time horizons in recent decades that it’s been more like 90% or more for a wide variety of stock market styles. SPIVA data doesn’t lie. (A Wealth of Common Sense)
• How Trump’s Attack on Jerome Powell has Royally Backfired: Trump’s public war on the Fed chair has accomplished the opposite of its intent—markets got spooked and rates moved the wrong way. Bullying the Fed doesn’t work. (Talking Points Memo)
• A man let ChatGPT sell his home. It beat every agent’s estimate by $100K—and closed in 5 days. One homeowner let AI handle his home sale and blew past every agent’s price estimate. An anecdote, not a trend—but the real estate industry should be nervous anyway. It all started on a long drive from south Florida to North Carolina last holiday season. As Robert Levine drove, he asked his wife in the passenger seat to prompt ChatGPT with questions they had about the home-selling process. “Are we capable of doing this?” they asked. “What’s the realistic timeline tactically?” (Fortune)
• Echoes of History: What the oil shock means for your money: As central bankers tread the line between controlling inflation and avoiding economic stagnation, investors face tough decisionsEchoes of history: what the oil shock means for your money As central bankers tread the line between controlling inflation and avoiding economic stagnation, investors face tough decisions. Parallels between today’s energy disruption and past oil shocks. History doesn’t repeat, but the portfolio implications rhyme. (Financial Times) see also Iran War Puts Global Energy Markets on the Brink of a Worst-Case Scenario. “This will be so, so, so, so, so bad,” one analyst says. The energy worst case is here: supply disruptions, price spikes, and no spare capacity. Wired lays out just how bad it could get.“This will be so, so, so, so, so bad,” one analyst says. (Wired)
• Will This ‘Miracle’ Battery Finally Change Your Mind About EVs? A Finnish startup claims to have perfected a revolutionary new battery. Whether the hype is to be believed, solid-state technology is coming—and it’s a potential disruptor for the entire EV industry. (Wall Street Journal)
• Why Americans think other Americans are bad people: The rising mutual contempt in American life. We’ve moved from disagreement to moral condemnation of the other side. The people blaming immigration and multiculturalism for the trust crisis have the story almost exactly backward. (The Argument)
• The Managed War: The photograph shows an aircraft in pieces on the tarmac at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. The tail markings are visible. The US Air Force markings are visible. The rear fuselage where the radar dome and surveillance systems are housed is gone. Air and Space Forces Magazine, the official publication of the Air Force Association and the most credible specialist outlet for US Air Force matters, reviewed the image and wrote that the extent of the damage likely renders the aircraft unrepairable. Then they published that finding under the word damaged. That is not a typo. That is a choice. The gap between what you are told and what is happening is not a failure. It is the strategy. (The Omission)
• Scientists Filmed a Whale Birth. The Surprise: Mom Had Many Helpers. Sperm whales have midwives. A stunning piece of marine biology that reminds us how little we know about the social lives of the ocean’s largest creatures. (New York Times)
• The Most-Enduring American Movies, According to Readers These films, including ‘The Wizard of Oz,’ have left lasting marks on American culture and identity. (Wall Street Journal)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Judd Kessler, the Howard Marks Endowed Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The winner of the Vernon L. Smith Ascending Scholar Prize,he is the author of is Lucky by Design The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want.
The Private-Credit Industry’s Trouble: Surging Redemptions, Slower Fundraising
Source: Wall Street Journal
Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.
