Search results for: daily

Average Daily Cause of Death in USA

 

Covid-19 vs. US Daily Average Cause of Death

Source: Flourish, hat tip Bill Sweet

 

This is a mind-blowing animation, showing that as of April 8th, the Covid 19 virus has risen to be the single leading daily cause of death in America (note NOT year to date or accumulated, but daily).

Let that sink in for a moment.

 

US Deficit: $1.5 Billion in Daily Interest

From Torsten Slok:

Here is a number for your dinner conversation tonight: Did you know that the US government last year on average paid $1.5bn each day in interest payments, and this is rising toward $2bn per day over the coming years, see chart below. And this number could rise further as interest rates go up because of an overheating economy, more Treasury supply, and lack of demand for US fixed income from abroad because of higher hedging costs. These forces pushing US rates higher did not disappear yesterday.

If you want to study this further you can look here:https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm

Source: Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Research

Report Earnings Daily

Reporting Profits Daily Would End Corporate Short-Termism
Think there’s too much hoopla about quarterly earnings? Imagine if the circus moved to twice a year
Bloomberg, August 20, 2018

 

 

 

Want to end corporate short-termism and all the heavy breathing that comes with quarterly earnings reporting? Then report results daily.

The excessive focus on stock price — and stock-option bonuses and compensation in the executive suite — is thought of as a driver of share buybacks and decreased capital spending, especially in research and development.

Recently, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. CEO Warren Buffett called on companies to move away from “providing quarterly earnings-per-share guidance. In our experience, quarterly earnings guidance often leads to an unhealthy focus on short-term profits at the expense of long-term strategy, growth and sustainability.”

President Donald Trump went even further: he asked financial regulators to “consider allowing public companies to share information with investors less often.” Trump directed the Securities and Exchange Commission to study the idea of moving reporting requirements from quarterly to twice a year.1

This is exactly backward: more frequent reporting makes the data less significant. In the real world, human behavior emphasizes what occurs less often — meaning doing something less frequently gives it an even greater significance than something that becomes routine or common.

That is the difference between a New Year’s Eve celebration and a married couple’s weekly date night.

Twice a year earnings reporting will make the event so momentous, with such focus on it that any company that misses analysts’ forecast will find their stock price shellacked. The twice-yearly focus on making the per-share number will become overwhelmingly intense.

This is counterproductive.

My proposal: report earnings monthly, with the goal of eventually moving to a near real-time, daily, fundamental update. Technology is improving to the point where business intelligence software and big data analyses will make this automated. Indeed, some companies already do much of this internally.

Once financial reporting becomes daily, the short-term earnings obsession will all but disappear. In its place will be a focus on broader profit trends and deeper analytics.

Plenty of people who have studied the issue of quarterly reporting find that it places an unhealthy emphasis on meeting or exceeding forecasts. The entire history of guidance and so-called whisper numbers reflects this short-term emphasis, as opposed to managing a company to thrive over the long-term.

Consider Amazon: it has continuously invested in expanding into new markets and new technology with little regard for quarterly profits; indeed, CEO Jeff Bezos outlined this long-term focus 20 years ago in his first letter to his shareholders. Compare this to General Electric Co., whose unhealthy obsession with beating expectations by a penny 2 a share during the 1990s made the company look far better than it really was. Since that time, accounting fraud, executive turmoil and subpar performance have led the company to shed almost businesses amounting to two-thirds of its market value.

I’ve also seen first-hand what the pressure of quarterly reporting does to a company. Some years ago, I worked at a firm that reported on its investment performance each quarter. Preparing the documents for all of the numbers was a huge deal. Each client household would receive a full “dead tree, snail mail” update: multiple accounts, benchmarks, capital additions or withdrawals all had to be accounted for. Sometimes the portfolio beat the market, often it did not. After the personalized report would go out, the phones and email would light up with questions.

The focus on those numbers every three months was an unhealthy obsession among clientele and staff alike. I wanted to avoid that issue when we launched our firm. Working with a software vendor, we give every client an application that allows them to see exactly how well they have done on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual basis. It’s updated daily. Maybe one day it will be in real time.

Once daily access to performance data became available, people stopped caring about quarterly numbers. The unhealthy short-term obsession simply disappeared, replaced with a simpler but more important question: “Am I on track to meet my longer-term goals?”

Changing the reporting conventions of U.S. corporations would do the same thing. Maybe a transition period would be needed, with monthly reporting. The frequency would reduce the chance for big surprises and disappointments. As technology and reporting systems improve, the numbers could be reported daily.

The bottom line is so obvious: To make quarterly earnings less important, we should be exploring ways to report results more often, not less.

________

1. For those who wish to remain free of the tyranny of quarterly reporting, there is ample venture-capital funding available.

2. The accounting malfeasance was enabled by GE Capital — the company’s ability to magically always find a few more dollars eventually led to an SEC investigation, and fines for false accounting.

 

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I originally published this at Bloomberg on August 20 ,2018. All of my Bloomberg columns can be found here and here

 

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Bloomberg: Daily Profit Reporting Would End Short-Termism

Reporting Profits Daily Would End Corporate Short-Termism
Think there’s too much hoopla about quarterly earnings? Imagine if the circus moved to twice a year
Bloomberg, August 20, 2018

 

 

 

Want to Make Earnings Great Again?  Report them daily.

My column at Bloomberg today looks at that issue. Ever since President Trump proposed that the SEC “consider allowing public companies to share information with investors less often,” i.e., 2X per year, I have been thinking about the repercussions of this.

I believe it is exactly backwards.

My experience has been that more frequent reporting makes the data less significant. In the real world, human behavior emphasizes rarity – meaning doing something less frequently gives it an even greater significance than something which has become a common occurrence.

Here is a real-world experience about the perils of performance reporting. Some years ago, I worked at a firm that reported quarterly numbers of how well their investments had done. Like clockwork, every three months we had to send out the quarterly numbers. Each client household would receive a full “dead tree, snail mail” update: multiple accounts, benchmarks, capital additions or withdrawals all had to be accounted for. Sometimes the portfolio beat the market, often it did not. After the personalized report would go out, the phones and email would light up with questions.

The focus on those short-term numbers every three months was an unhealthy obsession among clientele and employees alike. Because it was only quarterly, preparing the documents for all of the numbers to go out became a Very. Big. Deal.

When we launched our firm, I wanted to avoid that issue. We did two very important things that I believe shifted the focus away from the short-term towards a much healthier time horizon.

First, we built in creating a long-term financial plan from the earliest discussions of our portfolios with prospective clients. This allows the regular noisy short-term numbers to be put into proper context. The key question became not short term performance but whether or not you are on track for meeting your long-term goals. How well or not the S&P500 did the past few months, and how closely we tracked that metric, became much less relevant.

But emphasizing long term planning alone is insufficient. The secret is to provide even more performance data – not less. Working with a software vendor, we give every client an application that allows them to see exactly how well they have done on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual basis. Its updated after every market close, and perhaps one day in the future it will become real time.

Here is the funny thing: once 24/7 access to performance data became available, including relative to all applicable benchmarks, PEOPLE STOPPED CARING ABOUT QUARTERLY NUMBERS. The unhealthy short-term obsession simply disappeared, to be replaced with a simpler but even more important question: “am I on track to meet my longer-term goals?”.

 

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See my full discussion of quarterly reporting at Bloomberg.

 

 

Michael Barbaro on The Daily’s Rich Explanatory Journalism

Recode:

For many decades, people read the New York Times because they wanted an authoritative, definitive take of the news that was “fit to print.” But what people want is changing, so the NYT is changing too, as reflected in its hit podcast “The Daily.”

“Your relationship with the New York Times was, for the most part, predicated on tablets being handed down to you every morning,” said the host of “The Daily,” Michael Barbaro, on the latest episode of Recode Media with Peter Kafka. “All of our relationships with journalism are changing. The idea of omniscience itself is kind of held in doubt, and it may not have ever really existed, it was more of a conceit.”

As listeners of the eight-month-old show know well, “The Daily” encourages New York Times journalists to talk like actual human beings, who sometimes don’t have answers for every question they’re asked.

“Oftentimes, they have figured something out,” Barbaro said. “But sometimes they’re in the middle of figuring it out … Journalists can say what they know and say what they don’t know, and talk very openly about their process. It creates a lot of transparency that people really crave right now.”

Here is the full audio:

Michael Barbaro explains why you love the New York Times’ podcast, ‘The Daily’

Source: Recode

Charlie Rose: ‘The Daily Show’

Author Chris Smith and Jon Stewart, the former host of “The Daily Show,” introduce “The Daily Show (The Book): An Oral History as Told by Jon Stewart, the Correspondents, Staff and Guests.”


Source: Charlie Rose