morning note/Choo Choo

China today is again proving that it’s the most important country in the
world right now in terms of being the engine of global growth that can
pull the other train cars with it after the CLSA mfr’g PMI index rose
above 50 for the 1st time since July (due to the still ongoing massive
deleveraging in the US, we may be the caboose in this recovery process).
It came in at 50.1, up from 44.8 in March. The CLSA # is more private
sector weighted unlike last week’s PMI # that is more centered on state
enterprises and has been above 50 for two straight months. Asian stocks
were up big overnight. With the results of the Treasury ‘stress test’
now expected to be released on Thursday, details keep getting leaked on
who needs what. The papers over the weekend said Citi needs $10b and the
FT today said BoA may need more than that. March Pending Home Sales are
out at 10am. On Friday, said the avg 30 yr mortgage rate
rose to a 2 1/2 week high.

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