China, China, China AGAIN

Both state owned and private sector weighted manufacturing indexes in China showed another month of expansion as both rose a touch from May and it helped to send the Shanghai index to another one year high. Japan’s Tankan report rose 10 points from the previous quarter (which was a record low dating back to 1974) but remained very weak at -48 and was 5 points below consensus. Capital spending plans remained weak too. The ISM is expected to be 44.6 up from 42.8 in May and it would be at the highest level since Aug 2008. The ADP report, Pending Home Sales, Construction Spending and Vehicle Sales are also key today. After falling to within one point of a record low, ABC confidence rose 2 points. While mortgage rates fell 10 bps on the week but still remain above 5%, refi’s fell a sharp 30% and is now down by 80% from its January high. Purchases fell by 4.5%. Fed Pres Yellen thinks inflation will remain low for several years, this as gold is just 8% from $1000. Someone will be wrong, will it be the economist and ex professor or the market?

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