Is gold rally a bubble? Not even close, yet

According to Dictionary.com, the definition of a speculative bubble is “a temporary market condition created through excessive buying and an unfounded run up in prices occurs.” If there is one asset that commonly gets described as being in a bubble, its gold but let’s look at its move over the past 10 yrs in perspective compared to other “bubble’s.” Gold at $1400 is up 450% from the Aug ’99 low. From 1982 to 2000, the NASDAQ rose 3000% and the DJIA rose 1400%. From 1978 to 1989, the Nikkei rose 700%. From July ’98 to the high in July ’08, crude oil rose 1245%. From its low in Nov ’01, copper has risen 605%. I’m not calling a bubble in Apple but its up by 4850% since 2003 for the obvious reasons. Thus, just because an asset is higher and has done well for years doesn’t mean its a bubble, YET, and this gold rally which I’ve been bullish on for many years, still has room to run.

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