With Jan PPI out today and CPI Thursday, this afternoon the minutes from the Jan FOMC meeting will reveal their thoughts of 3 weeks ago on the impact commodity inflation is or is not having on their inflation outlook. After yesterday’s 4% CPI print y/o/y in the UK, BoE Gov King said because he still expects inflation to slowdown in the medium term, he’s not in a rush to raise rates from the current historical low of .5%. Jan UK jobless claims did unexpectedly rise and it’s this concern with the economy that has him very reluctant to raise rates even as higher inflation poses its own threats. In the US, as the avg 30 yr mortgage rate last week was above 5%, the MBA said refi’s fell 11.4% to the lowest since July ’09 and purchases fell 5.9%, near the lowest since Oct. II: Bulls 52.2 v 53.4 Bears 19.6 v 23.3, .5 pt from lowest since April and those expecting a Correction (still a bull who wants to buy dip) rose to 28.2 from 23.3, the most since Nov.
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