You forget how inane the TV chatter is until someone like Kelly Evans comes along and reminds the infotainment talking heads what journalism actually is . . .
we have a busy day for economic numbers coming in both here and abroad. our newest reporter kelly evans joins us on set to talk about it. first of all, welcome to cnbc. i am glad to be making my debut on squawk. we’re glad to have you. i talked to her about it already. this is huge. you don’t look nervous. someone asked you about — before the presidential debate. you don’t look nervous. no need to be nervous but the debut on squawk. i should have been dripping with sweat, shaking in the chair. joe was my — the first time i ever came on — careful. it was over his shoulder. really? and i was going — he was. he said, you’re from the waul strl street journal. you must be a commie. there is a big chinese ball. i think the reporters at the wall street journal are indistinguishable from the reporters at the new york times. they’re mainstream media. but then were you reading a teleprompter. i was reading a teleprompter live for the first time ever. and she stopped and messed something up and went, blah, blah, blah and started over a. new person if they mess up usually freeze. she didn’t. i said she has a lot of — a star was born. just like now. exactly. so welcome, kelly. we’re pleased to have you here. and i know you want to look through some of the numbers today. the jobless claims is the most important. i’m thrilled to be on when we get all of this economic data. the jobless claims report out at 8:30. i get excite bod about this stu. jobless claims tell the equity story and then at the same time you still see — you look at the ten year and you see that lagging behind. you don’t see the same enthusiasm for a variety of reasons. but it points to pressure building there and people are continuing to wait and see whether 2012 will be the same story as 2011, 2010 to some degree where we start out strong, risk on, oil prices, ten year inching up and whether it’s february or april or whatever, we seem to put in the highs for the year risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse and it’s one of the summer sell-offs and into the fall again. i think that’s the biggest question. i’m sorry. is that a question mark or a prognostication? i would err on the side of prognostication. i will take the other side of joe’s 30%. we’re already there. you’re taking your 30% off the table? no. we already hit it. from october. he’s already adjusting the goal post. did he send this to you, the two charts that correlate the best with in-trade prices for obama’s re-election. the jobless claims is the best proxy for the stock market. it’s amazing for the stock market as well. that’s the two that he sent. one is the jobless claims and the other is jobless claims charted against the s&p 500. there’s a high correlation. we have come to a lot of attention for these volatile numbers, the jobless claims. they may be the best indicator. they really are. i would ask if you had to go to a desert island what would it be? most of them say jobless claims and it’s so funny because it’s a sim is am series. the labor department measures it. it’s hard to react because it is so volatile and 7,000 doesn’t mean a lot. you mean versus the monthly jobs report? right. the unemployment rate is useful but the payroll figures are volatile and they are so revised and you have to get a long enough track record going. jobless claims is pretty reliable. we are always talking about seasonal things. that’s why it’s hard to react and that could be the case again this week. we always say the week of the big mother of all numbers — the week of the 12th. the claims numbers are not in there anyway. you can’t decide anything about the claims number. this and you wouldn’t expect or they wouldn’t expect to see much more improvement before the end of the year. it is a lagging indicator. they finally changed their unemployment rate. now they have to turn around and say, great, now it’s falling quicker than we expected. it might have looked better. it’s clear you can’t put a lot of stock into what they expect happening with the economy. their forecasts don’t amount to much over time. we should not put that much faith in 2014 forecast for rates being at these low levels. that’s just a case of trying to use language to get a little more easing into the market or give themselves a few more options but no one actually thinks that it means — that’s what fisher said. bullard, too. right? and yesterday i asked him when does the participation rate ever come back to haunt these numbers because got it so quickly. do you think they will come back? there’s a strong demographic story. it was actually higher than demographics would have suggested. there’s a little bit of a catch-up going. so there’s reason to believe what you are seeing in the numbers is probably going to stay. the participation rate by the time you go from sort of the up to 55 into the 50s and 60s drops by half. from 80% to 40%. it’s a much more powerful move than a lot of what’s happening with, you know, in terms of coming out of the labor force. from 9.3 to 8.3 happened so quickly. surprisingly you would think the next point is much harder. i think that’s a fair point. i actually think it may go up higher. who knows, though. i would have never guessed. the first couple where we went, those weren’t expected, those big drops. we’ll get it back next month and they continued. and that was right after everyone had raised their forecast saying this thing isn’t moving at all and it falls. a good indicator to what everyone thinks is going to happen and do the opposite. ism, the first day of the month we get all of the global manufacturing. we’ve seen china showing a little bit of improvement but not as much as expected after the chinese new year. we’ve seen the european data improving. that indicates growth and the u.s. figures are out at 10:00. we’ll see the tone that is set the first day of the month very often will set the tone for the rest of the month so it is quite important what the market does today. there’s a jobs component, o too. yeah, the employment index and it’s a good way — this is the sentiment gauge. while we talk about how volatile those monthly payroll numbers can be when you look at the index another way of trying to feel out whether the economy is getting better or not. i’ll leave you with my dentist indicator. he said my dentist, earlier this week, three new patients a day and usually he only gets one or two. he says that only happens when people start full time and get their benefits and they come in and start to see me. all right. you don’t go see the dentist that often, i hope. me? i’m going to london in a couple of months. i have to get my teeth taken care of. now while you’re here. all messed up over there, right? you’re 5’11 or 06 feet? almost. you put on heels and you’re over 6 feet. this is a good show for you. because i’m sitting? no, no, because both of us can match up. we’re both over 6 feet. but we’re going to have to think about which shows you’re going to be good on on the network. you may need to skip a few unless you are sitting on the set. but welcome. it’s great. i would like to say a star has been born. we’re claiming you for squawk right now, too. she was at another place and did very well. we won’t need to mention any names. very exciting. a lot is happening in the video media space right now. but you made it now — i made it. you made cnbc squawk box. and you’re coming back at 8:30. in our mind. i don’t know. i think 8:30. maybe to the stock exchange to see the new set. excellent. the tour. the grand tour. a star is born. kelly, thank you and we will see you again really soon. coming up we’ll head to the
Talking Numbers: S&P Rally t