Is This the Summer Meltup?

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One should always be careful about making broad pronouncements following a period of decline or advance. What appears to be a significant move might turn out to be a mere counter-trend reaction.

Case in point: Greece and the EU.

Today, European markets advanced based on (further) Greek loans to banks, but what are the odds of these getting paid back a) on time and 2) in full?) Regardless, hopes for a resolution of EU crisis loom large.

The simple truth is that Greece, as the first domino in Europe, poses a threat to EH (and therefor) international growth. Anecdotally, an increasing number of investors — or are they just increasingly vocal? — are betting the Euro is doomed. Thus, the collateral damage from a Greek departure is more European sovereign defaults.

Even with FDIC insurance, the US has experienced occasional bank runs; without the same insurance across all of Europe, I can imagine more credit crunches and recessions if there are more bank woes in the Euro zone.

Back to our headline question and original statement: We are oversold and due for a bounce after a bad few weeks in Q2. Whether this is the beginning of something more or merely a reaction rally has yet to be determined, but so far, the market internals have been unimpressive on recent rallies.

So while a melt up is possible, I still await more evidence.


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