It’s a Bubble! It’s a Recession! It’s a Crash!

When was the last time anyone got good investing advice from the front page of a newspaper or magazine or from a television pundit?

That is the question I have been pondering during this market cycle. Whether it is the price of equities or the state of the economy, I have grave reservations about relying on the usual suspects as a source of insight. This is especially the case when the usual suspects have been so wrong for so long about these issues.

Ask yourself the following questions:

• When has the mainstream media made a timely warning about an imminent recession?

• Has the punditocracy ever correctly identified a bubble in real time?

• When have the public’s perspectives on market valuation ever been right?

Look at mutual fund flows if you want to see how wrong individuals are; check out various valuation methods to see how much bias and data cherry-picking goes on.

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