Da Bears . . .

October 5, 2011 11:15am by Barry Ritholtz

Chart via WSJ

I have no idea where idea that “20%” somehow defines a bear market, or where it came from.

In my mind, I prefer to think of this in the context of trends. Is any market moving from lower left to upper right of the chart? That is a bull market. If the move is from upper left to lower right, its a bear market. Anything in between is a trading range.

Hence, from the recent highs back in April to today, the overall trend has been down.

Following Fridays 90/90 day, we should expect a rally to last 4-7 days, before resuming the prior trend (lower).

If we could see a 5-7% move higher, I would be looking to further lighten up my 50% exposure to equities.

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