If this week’s cover story in Barron’s cover article on a housing bottom looks vaguely familiar, its because it is familiar.
Almost 4 years ago, the magazine published pretty much the same article saying mostly the same things.
In the July 14, 2008 edition, Jonathan R. Laing wrote “Bottom’s Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived.” That article was terribly wrong, and many years too early.
The latest RRE bottom calling article is dated March 17, 2012, titled Home Prices Ready to Rebound and is also penned by Jonathan R. Laing. We don’t yet know if its terribly wrong and many years too early. However, I would hazard to make the guess that its probably modestly wrong and a few years too early.
As the current rate of Barron’s Housing bottom cover stories, we should expect to see a third bottom call 43 months from now — around October 2015. I expect that bottom call will be mostly right and perhaps even a touch late.
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Previously:
Why Barron’s Housing Cover Is So Terribly Wrong (July 12th, 2008)
Sources:
Bottom’s Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived
JONATHAN R. LAING
Barron’s JULY 14, 2008
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121581623724947273.html
Ready to Rebound
JONATHAN R. LAING
Barron’s MARCH 17, 2012
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904797004577281453828447714.html
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