Chart of the Week: Leading Indicators Trend Downwards

Leading Economic Indicators increased m/m 0.1% in February
after negative numbers in January, October, September, August, and July. Since
these are leading indicators, they point to a slowing beginning starting around
February. Half of the 10 index components were up this month. which compares to
3 in January, 5 in December, 7 in November, 2 in October, 4 in September, 4 in
August, and 3 in July.

Leading Indicators Trend Downwards
click for larger chart
Lei_march_05

Source: MFR

Prior economic forecasts by Wall Street have been as high as
4.5-5% (annualized real GDP growth). The recent LEI point to weak GDP growth.

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Quote of the Day:

"Not the maker of plans and promises, but rather the one who offers
faithful service in small matters. This is the person who is most likely to
achieve what is good and lasting."   

~Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe (1749-1832)

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. marku commented on Mar 17

    Odd, quite a divergence from ECRI, who forecasts an aceeleration in the near (6mos) term.

  2. spencer commented on Mar 18

    Across the board you are seeing this conflict with economists and the consensus expecting good growth while various leading indicator approaches are projecting a weaker economy.