In today’s NYTimes, Floyd Norris hits on a subject that has been a favorite of ours over the years: Finding the true measure of the economy’s labor situation.
"The unemployment rate is low. The jobless rate is high.
Those two seemingly contradictory statements are especially true for American men in what should be the prime of their working lives. Those facts may help to explain the stark pessimism of Americans about the economy, and shed some light on the rise of illegal immigration as a political issue."
How is that possible? The two different rates measure two very different things:
"The unemployment rate paints a less gloomy picture. Among men ages 25 to 54 — a range that starts after most people finish their education and ends well before most people retire — the unemployment rate is 4.1 percent. That is not especially low, but it is well below the peak rate in all but one post-World War II recession. Only people without jobs who are actively looking for work qualify as unemployed in the computation of that rate. It does not count people who are not looking for work, whether or not they would like to have a job.
But there is another rate — called the jobless rate in this article — that counts the proportion of people without jobs. To be sure, some of them do not want to work. Some are raising families on a spouse’s income, or are disabled, retired or independently wealthy. But others may be discouraged workers, who would take jobs if they thought any desirable positions were available.
So how bad is the "Jobless" rate? How about the 2nd highest sinbce WWII:
In the latest report, for March, the Labor Department reported the jobless rate — also called the “not employed rate” by some — at 13.1 percent for men in the prime age group. Only once during a post-World War II recession did the rate ever get that high. It hit 13.3 percent in June 1982, the 12th month of the brutal 1981-82 recession, and continued to rise from there.
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A Tale of Two Rates
chart courtesy of NYT
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Good stuff, Floyd.
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Previously:
The Misleading Jobless Rate (March 2008) http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/03/the-misleading.html
A Closer Look at Unemployment (September 2007)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/09/a-closer-look-a.html
Unemployment Levels and Labor Participation Rate (February 2006) http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/02/unemployment_an.html
Unemployment vs Underemployment (July 2004) http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/07/unemployment_vs.html
Chart of the Week: Augmented Unemployment Rate (January 2004) http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/01/chart_of_the_we_2.html
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Source:
Many More Are Jobless Than Are Unemployed
Floyd Norris
NYT, April 12, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/12/business/12charts.html
The Financial sector will contribute to the jobless rate for a long time.
I have posted a chart illustrating the ratio of employment in the financial sector relative to natural resources.
This ratio moves in harmony with the financial markets.
In periods of high inflation, the ratio declines as markets experience a contraction in P/E.
See
http://wrahal.blogspot.com/2008/04/tangible-vs-finacial-assets-part-two.html
The most interesting thing to me in the associated graph is the gap between the Jobless rate and the Unemployment rate.
The gap between the two rates reflects those people who are jobless and were unable to find a suitable job while probably drawing unemployment pay and have subsequently been purged from the system.
In other words, they are still jobless but are no longer eligible for unemployment benefits, so they just fall off the unemployed rolls (whether they ever actually get a job or not).
In short, the gap between the two rates has been widening since around 1983; which means fewer and fewer people are actually finding new jobs. In addition, the rate of widening is increasing.
There is more than lost productivity and lost opportunity when large numbers of healthy, otherwise capable people remain jobless. The crime rate increases in some cases dramatically(probably at the same rate of divergence as in the graph above).
This adds another social cost: a larger police force, social welfare, etc. So instead of having a productive, tax-paying citizen, you now have a disallusioned/disgruntled person just trying to survive; who may well end-up incarcerated; which is yet another BIG social cost.
Employed people contribute to the social coffers. Jobless people drain social coffers in a myriad number of ways.
If you’ve been out of work for more than a year then you are most likely unemployable because recruiters don’t want to represent you and employers don’t want to interview you. It’s like that punchline where the farmer says to the lost city dweller “You can’t get there from here”
What has happened to the American worker in this country for the last ten years is criminal.
Barry,
Do you think it is a good idea to bet against G-7?
Just curious about your opinion.
Thanks
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080411/credit_crisis.html
~~~
B: I hadn’t really thought about it.
In what way to you mean bet against the G7 ?
Posted by: BG | Apr 12, 2008 9:58:29 AM
I noticed that, too.
Fairly discouraging to be educated, or even highly educated, and not able to find a job better than unskilled labor. With our guest workers heading for greener pastures, we will learn the difference between “jobs Americans won’t do,” and “jobs that don’t pay enough for Americans to do.”
A green lawn is fixin’ to cost a lot more.
Please don’t overlook the fact that there is a large segment of the population that is “unemployable”. They lack the necessary social skills, work ethic and training to make them worth hiring. This is especially true in light of the EEOC exposure, worker’s compensation claims, etc. that tend to be higher from such people. This is basically one reason employers have been forced to rely upon legal and illegal immigrants to keep their businesses running. A close look at the carpet industry in Dalton, Georgia will show you the actual facts.
How is the jobless compiled?
As someone who runs my own company and is the sole employee of that company I am ineligible for unemployment benefits (can’t lay off myself) so when I wasn’t working in January do not being able to find contracts (which is not at all unusual for what I do) – exactly which statistic counted for me? I suspect neither.
Posted by: David | Apr 12, 2008 10:13:23 AM
EEOC exposure, worker’s compensation claims, etc. that tend to be higher from such people. This is basically one reason employers have been forced to rely upon legal and illegal immigrants to keep their businesses running.
____________
Employers haven’t been “forced” to break the law to save their businesses. The employers have used their ill gotten profits to line their own pockets. The income disparity in this country could have been used to feed the system – sacrificing windfall prices and political instability for reasonable profits and stability.
If they can’t make a buck legitimately, perhaps it’s the employers who should be scrubbing toilets.
BG wrote,
“….those people who are jobless and were unable to find a suitable job….have subsequently been purged from the system.”
Purged – what a good, Soviet-style word.
“In short, the gap between the two rates has been widening since around 1983;”
What a coincidence – the 1980’s delivered the birth of the FIRE economy to the U.S.
And since then, real jobs have declined – tell me it ain’t so….is it just me, or does that trickle down have a familiar, slightly pungent odor to it?
Yeap. I agree. There are some people that are just plain sorry! However, there are a lot of jobless people who just need a chance at a “good” job, not just a string of ratty jobs.
You know there was a time when the employer would (religiously)TRAIN their employees the “Company way” of doing things. That provided consistency, quality-of-work and continuity for their brand. They would never consider having a “loose cannon” running around.
Now, Companies are no longer willing to comit to the cost of training employees and expect you to know everything needed on the job when coming in. In essence, even those jobs still in this Country have already out-sourced a lot of the intelligence and know-how required to do the job!
In short, management no longer knows the inter-workings of their own business; but instead only know those contract workers or companies that offer the cheapest rates. As a result, young people have absolutely no loyalty to the Company they work for….for very good reason.
It’s really a sad situation. It all revolves around the dollar right this instance and to hell with any subsequent consequences tomorrow.
Winston Munn:
You are correct. The plans for the great American outsourcing started in 1980 and began in earnest in 1983. I’ll let you connect the dots.
finally. now i’d like to see the same jobless #s plotted for the anti-capitalist social welfare states of EU. see how we’re doing. i expect before long we’ll be quarantined by all right-thinking countries as a serial currency-debaser, polluter, war-monger and promoter of poverty-making labor and health standards.
Marcus Aurelius wrote:
“The income disparity in this country could have been used to feed the system – sacrificing windfall prices and political instability for reasonable profits and stability.”
I say, Amen Brother!
Let’s see, 4 years of grad school, a couple interviews and one offer of $30K from fucking Lockheed, after IBM sent my job to India, and David thinks I am “unemployable”.
Obviously he has his head in the sand. The people I know get fired in their mid-50s and they don’t get comparable jobs. yet idiots like David and Oracle say there are 1000 jobs that NO Qualified person, out of 300 million people, can do, other than cheap Indian imported labor.
Funny how supply and demand never gets to the employer side of the equation. But I can tel you think, I did not spend years on an education to give it away.
Does this make the US better off?
1. On Friday, everything was set for the bulls until GE bomb dropped.
2. GE missed because the credit markets were frozen at the end of March (according to GE CEO, I doubt he was lying); as a result, GE could not sell the paper before the end of last quarter (end of March)
3. Credit markets hysteria (overreaction) is at the center of our current problems (not to minimize the housing problem)
4. G-7 members are committed to unplugging the credit markets at any cost. If they successful, GE (as one example) sells what they could not sell and record an upward earnings surprise during this quarter.
5. I am also suspecting G-7 members were exerting pressure on the Bush administration to fix the housing problem (at least freeze the rate of foreclosures) and to prop up the dollar.
In short, you would need to bet against G-7 efforts now if you short this market (keep in mind that the market has already dropped 10-15% from its peak, it is not near all time high)
Please give an honest looking at both sides answer (not Floyd Norris’ political spin), examining both possible scenarios (bullish vs. bearish).
American media is extremely political, the heads on TV talking their books, everyone is spinning and it is impossible to get the truth from them (please do not do the same).
Thanks
In the 80’s and 90’s when I was enjoying a career as a software engineer I recall hearing the talking heads on TV lecturing factory workers whose jobs were sent overseas to retrain as programmers. Now that programming jobs are being sent overseas the talking heads seem to be out of helpful suggestions. I guess becoming a realtor would have been a good idea a few years ago. Not so much now.
To David, Mister “Unemployed people are lazy”, if something bad should happen to you I hope you remember it is because you are a lazy person and just aren’t motivated enough to go out and make good things happen to you.
I am going to throw a curveball into the argument: I’m in my early 30’s and among men in my cohort, it has been inceasingly popular to become stay at home dads or house husbands. I know many, actually too many, in my opinion, men, educated and able-bodied, who would rather not be out in the workforce. This laziness and lack of ambition has propagated throughout the so called Gen-X mentality. I think it is pathetic.
Barry, I am sorry — Floyd Norris, like most innumerate journalists, does not understand the difference between correlation and causation.
Or worse yet, simply ignores it. But hey it fits the economic pessimism meme of the NYT. (Maybe it’s because the Times stock options of Floyd and his colleagues are evaporating into valuelessness).
Until I see a real economist tackle this problem and arrive at a statistically supportable set of conclusions, I will remain skeptical.
Norris may be right, but we are in a different time and a different demography. In other words, we need a lot more crosstabs. What other factors besides race can we use to slice the data? Household net worth? Education? And, frankly the 25 to 54 age range is simply way too large. What is the breakdown by tighter age ranges?
Today we have a much more fluid, small business based, entrepreneurial economy. The labor market is very dynamic and the old days are gone forever.
Barry, every time you post this kind of stuff, posters come on and tell their stories about how they are highly educated or highly experienced but out of a job and can’t find one. It’s hard to know, frankly, the reasons for that: is it a structural macroeconomic fact? or a personal one.
It was good, therefore, to see the story of the person who might be considered statistically “jobless” but is doing well. I am statistically “jobless” but I have got a thriving little business going and am trading like a maniac is this market that is rich with opportunities.
But such stories, personally harrowing or refreshing as they may respectively be, are, in the end, anecdotes. Anecdotes do not make for analysis.
And correlation does not make for causation.
Where are the women in all of this? What impact does the entrance of many more women in the workforce since WWII have on this historical data set?
Posted by: yoshi | Apr 12, 2008 10:17:05 AM
____
Good point.
Have you noticed the move (in tandem with the use of undocumented workers) to have employees rehired as “contractors”? Half the people I know are now contract employees or consultants. Their job remains the same.
The fact that this is only men makes me wonder what comparable total employment stats,(women included)looks like. Is it reasonable to ask if the large increase in female employment over these years mitigates the effect of rising joblessness of men?
Karl K. wrote:
“It’s hard to know, frankly, the reasons…….. is it a structural macroeconomic fact? or a personal one.”
Well, we are both sure it is a mixture of both; however, the problem with the macro view is also well understood.
You will always have a huge disconnect when you have people in a modern society competing against people in a 3rd world country making $2 per day working in terrible conditions.
As mentioned earlier in this thread…..You can’t get there from here!
People in this Country (employed and unemployed) have chosen to reap the fruits of exploited human capital in other parts of the world. You could argue the fact that very little has changed in this area for hundreds of years; while being characterized as a very honorable thing to do.
I recently wrote an 8 page investigative report on math and science education in the US vs China vs India. Some highlights:
US is still the undisputed leader in the performance of basic and applied research and in applying research and innovation to improve economic performance.
38 of the world’s top 50 leading research institutions are in the United States. A tradition of public funding for research and our country’s diversity has lead to great innovation and prosperity. However, an astounding 55% of PhDs awarded in these US institues goe to foreign nationals.
India now exports over $10 Billion a year in software and IT services growing 28% annually.
IBM sold PC business to a Chinese company… is projected to have more than a quarter of its employees stationed in India by 2010.
U.S. share of global exports has fallen in the past 20 years from 30 to 17%, while the share for emerging countries in Asia grew from 7 to 27%. The U.S now has a negative trade balance for high-technology products.
Only 3% of African Americans, 4% of Hispanics, 20% of Whites and 34% of Asians in America are proficient in Math by 12th grade.
9
3% of high school science is taught by teachers who know little about their subjects.
100 million Chinese are studying English, yet only 50,000 Americans are studying Chinese.
Chinese students spend about twice as many hours studying per year than American students.
I recommend watching the documentary “2 Million Minutes” (see link for trailer)…very eye opening. If anyone is interested, maybe I could post my report somewhere or Barry could post it.
2 Million Minutes trailer
Steve, that is very good stuff.
It reminds me of something I observed while waiting in a Doctor’s Office. The TV was on the waiting room and I don’t remember which network it was turned to; but, the piece was a comparison in the typical daily life-style of an American youth versus an Asian (Chinese, I think) youth.
Well, the Asian youth was diligently working on a difficult piece of music on a violin.
You know what the American youth was doing at the same time? Looking/primping in the mirror wearing a new pair of cheap sunglasses they had recently purchased!
WOW! That speaks volumes.
“They lack the necessary social skills, work ethic and training to make them worth hiring.”
This is nothing more than apologetics for outsourcing, both legal and illegal. I live on the north side of Atlanta, not much more than an hour away from Dalton, a town I have frequently travelled through and to during my life. Perhaps, David, you might oblige me by explaining exactly what’s so special about the carpet mills there that the owners have been “forced” to break the law by hiring illegal immigrants? Further, perhaps you might explain how it is that illegal immigrants *possess* the requisite “social skills, work ethic and training” to make them “worth” hiring?
I can hardly wait to hear your exposition on those topics. Please, by all means, elaborate.
BG…yes…click on my link above…the video you described is from 2 Million Minutes. You can google it also and they have a cool website.
Our education system is clearly falling behind now. The Internet makes it possible to offshore high tech work at a fraction of the cost. The scary part is that if our engineers just kep par with China and India, they will be priced out of the job market by the cheaper global workforce. The storm clouds are gathering…
What’s interesting about the graph is that there appears to be a long term secular trend going on. If you look at it, you see that almost every recession causes a higher spike in the jobless rate, and that the lows between recessions are higher too. So something is happening, and it is a very long term process that starts in the 60’s. What is it? That’s the million dollar question.
I don’t think the cause is primarily outsourcing, as this was’t really a big factor in the 70’s yet the jobless rate was already rising. Amazingly, the jobless rate in 1968 was less than 2 percent!
I suspect the answer is complicated, involving a change in cultural expectations about men and work, immigration, job losses, and the rise of women in the workforce.
I’d like to see the comparable graph for women the same age, as I suspect that one issue is that the U.S. does not have enough good jobs for men, women, minorities, and immigrants, and as the latter three categories of workers have increasingly moved into the workforce, white men have had to compete more. This is not necessarily a bad thing. But in looking at these types of “factoids”, I think it is terribly important to look at the big picture! (pun intended).
BR,
Any suggestions on how to take a look at the jobless rate net of retirees, self-employed, and high-income households?
I believe the usual demons of lazy shiftless types, and those put out of work due to immigrants could be better addressed.
If you’re under 30-35 yrs of age chances are 90+% of you will not be as financially well off as your parents or even grandparents.
And the standard of living for 90% of Americans of all ages is destined to go down to some degree before some type of re-adjustment when ???
Why ? Because 25+ yrs of increasingly financial engineered driven bullshit for the US economy ( especially the last 8 yrs under Bush ) with massive market bubbles has created systemic damage.
1. The USA needs $2B a day from China et al or could not keep its economy stable or spare the dollar from collapse.
2. The USA already has close to $10 Trillion in national debt
3. The USA has a trade deficit of $800B/yr
4. The USA is the prime engine for derivatives ‘ticking bomb’ that grew into a massive bubble, from about $100 trillion in 2000 to $516 trillion by 2007 that is starting to go off in blowback stages and the latest ploys by the The Fed, G7 will have little effect to stop it.
5. The USA already has way too many Americans overwhelmed by personal debt racking up a household debt-to-income ratio of 1.42 ( for total of $13.8 trillion in debt including mortgages ) that already matches the country’s $14 trillion G.D.P.
6. The USA has Bushie boy racking up $32 Trillion dollars in total liabilities and unfunded commitments for future payments since 2000.
7. What and where is the engine for US job growth with pay >$100K /yr. ?
Personally, I don’t have a lot of sympathy for the “Oh mi god, we’re outsourcing our highpaying work to foreigners” moan.
What gives US the right to complain that the Indians and Chinese want to improve their standard of living? What gives us the right to complain that they are taking jobs from us?
At the same time, frankly, I don’t have a lot of sympathy for the “our education system sucks” complaint either. I am sorry, some of the time people have to take personal responsibility. There is plenty of opportunity to get a good education in this country, IF YOU WANT TO. And that includes kids who are in sub optimal schools today.
I might offer an alternate explanation — we are wealthy.
An increase by 5% of the people who feel they do not “need to work” since 1975 is not out-of-line with American wealth.
I havent thought through all the details. Any reason why this additional 5% are not in good part OK living modestly off their capital?
I don’t think either the jobless or the unemployment rate matter that much. Even if someone is retired or so rich they aren’t working, they have to be supported economically by people who are. Goods have to be produced by someone. What really matters is the *employment rate*: how many people actually have jobs?
There is plenty of opportunity to get a good education in this country, IF YOU WANT TO. And that includes kids who are in sub optimal schools today.
Posted by: Karl K | Apr 12, 2008 12:45:23 ____
Just look at our President!
So, YOU WANT TO go to school? Go look for grant money. Go try to get a loan. The price of an allegedly good education has gotten way out of hand.
For the past 30 years, institutions of higher learning have granted degrees in higher education to anyone who could afford them.
Again, just look at our President. MBA. Harvard.
There are hundreds of George Bushes populating the top tier of our corporate community, and thousands more occupying middle management.
The new path to higher education for the masses is through the military. We need the soldiers.
Higher Education. As Inigo Montoya would say: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
“Good stuff, Floyd”
Are you kidding Barry? You were sarcastic, right. (I hope you were)
Where the jobless rate and unemployment rate of WOMEN is ages 25 to 54 from 1960’s to present?
The chart for women is a mirror image of the chart for men (not surprising why NYT’s Floyd did not include the chart for women).
You should rename the blog from The Big Picture to The Half Picture or to The Left Side of The Picture.
I rest my case.
Have a nice weekend!
letter in my local papers opinion page by me on 4/3/08:
IRS1099 Sub-Contractor status
Relax the rules for Americas sake?
Yesterday I was getting a breakfast biscuit and started a quick conversation with the two ladies in the kitchen. They were short handed for the day.
America is operating in a homogeneous entity of:
Small business and family Capitalist (balanced accounts daily)
Government Socialist (must not fail, tax based income, borrow if needed)
Corporate Communism (private profits and public losses via bankruptcy)
With the three sub-entities above, I like to think of them as people, not the entity. Corporations can fail as a name, while the employees extract a wage and benefit package that is not reclaimable.
>Bankruptcy losses are paid by all people.
>Business profits come from us consumers.
Back to the subject of IRS1099 sub-contractor status and the breakfast conversation. The 1099 provides a business the ability to hire an individual to do a task. Your phone books are delivered using this rule. The 1099 law frowns on corporate fast food businesses to hire kitchen help. Illegal immigrant workers and employers exploit this loophole or say system flaw.
Dear Sec Paulson, Chm Bernanke, Presidential candidates Obama, McCain, Clinton:
Do you think allowing more activities in the 1099 would be good economics to get America back in the game with the world. I must warn you; on one hand the Socialist will loose a direct line input to the tax coffers putting possibly more burden on Corporations to pay for the social infrastructure. But on the other hand, reductions in; insurance costs, unemployment benefits, workman’s comp, wrongful discharge lawsuits would be SUBSTANTIAL benefits for America in a global economy. Various categories of people could be put back in the workforce with less stress on business. I do not believe the 4% unemployment number. People have fell out of that number via data collection points. Like someone behind bars is not available and looking for work.
What goes up must come down.
Every action has an opposite and equal reaction.
What say ye?
Conniving, drug dealing and robbery are not a good answer to survive. Things will get better after the wheel breaks. Hang in there and use the existing safety nets.
Greg Stein
Oglesby
I left my job with Corporate America and have been trading from home since 1997. I suppose that makes me officially unemployed, or jobless. Whatever.
I just think there’s a lot of people who got fed up with the corporate life, having a boss, the hassle of a commute, the suit and tie, the colleagues that drove you nuts, having to be somewhere at such and such a time, not enough vacation, yada, yada. With the advent of the internet and digital age, if you’re a bright, driven person it’s not that hard to make a living on your own although you do need some nest egg to fall back on when times are tough like right now. Very hard to do it starting from scratch but it’s possible. Nonetheless, I’m sure this skews those numbers considerably.
Having said all that, I do think this country is like a train wreck in slow motion. We have a broken political system where the GOP is too far right and the Democrats are too far left. All of the presidential candidates offer more of the same. I’m having a hard time figuring out whose policies are worse: McBush policy of never-ending wars with sky high deficits or Hillary/Obama policy of big government/high taxes. I think Bush is the worst president ever. It’s unfathomable to me that McCain runs on endorsing Bush policy and he insults my intelligence.
There are certainly more wealthy people that don’t need to work than there were 50 years ago due to the VERY WEAK inheritance tax. You should expect this rate to be higher today.
Other than the direction of the overall economy, job creation itself is of no great consequence – cycles happen – what is of greater importance longterm is the quality of those jobs that are available.
The change from a manufacturing-based economy to a service-based economy impacts hardest the middle class. Although there is certainly opportunity for higher wealth with higher education, that educational opportunity is neither available to everyone nor wanted by all. An economy needs mechanics as well as engineers – the fallacy of current thought is that only the highly educated should be rewarded, while other skills should be shopped to the lowest bidder.
And that leads to less self-reliance and more dependence. Dependence on the quality of the goods shipped to us.
Myself, I am seeing evidence of what Russ Winters calls “coin shaving” in the outsourcing markets, meaning that the quality of imports is dropping as the exporting countries have to compensate for the inflation exported to them from the U.S.
Not only have we shipped overseas our manufacturing base, but our quality control departments, too.
But hey, if you can’t trust Vietman and China to act right, who the heck are you gonna trust?
At least there stuff is cheap – but is it a bargain?
Meanwhile, unemployment accross the EU is higher than the U.S.; Spain 9%, France 7.5%, and that great engine uber alles of the EU economy, Germany, has an unemployment rate of 9% and climbing.
Correction: Should read” At least their stuff…”
I love KM4’s rants. They sum up nicely all the memes the pessimists love. Let’s take ’em one at a time, shall we??
If you’re under 30-35 yrs of age chances are 90+% of you will not be as financially well off as your parents or even grandparents.
Really? You have proof, evidence? Make sure you patent that crystal ball!
And are you factoring out flat screen TVs, cable, iPods, microwaves, hybrid cars in all of this?
Why ? Because 25+ yrs of increasingly financial engineered driven bullshit for the US economy ( especially the last 8 yrs under Bush ) with massive market bubbles has created systemic damage.
I see. So the economy that gave us huge advances in agriculture, computing power, software, digitization, industrial robotics, and medicine and productivity gains in general — and will soon give us enormous advances in genetics and nanotechnology — that doesn’t matter? Right?
1. The USA needs $2B a day from China et al or could not keep its economy stable or spare the dollar from collapse.
Oh mi god. China is INVESTING in us!! Horrors.
2.The USA already has close to $10 Trillion in national debt
And the GDP to support it.
3. The USA has a trade deficit of $800B/yr
So? I suggest you read Adam Smith on this issue.
4. The USA is the prime engine for derivatives ‘ticking bomb’ that grew into a massive bubble, from about $100 trillion in 2000 to $516 trillion by 2007 that is starting to go off in blowback stages and the latest ploys by the The Fed, G7 will have little effect to stop it.
Ah, more crystal ball. I might even think you WANT a meltdown. You may find it perversely pleasing, as many do who post here.
Here’s a prediction for you: all bubbles burst. Economies go on. This one will too.
5. The USA already has way too many Americans overwhelmed by personal debt racking up a household debt-to-income ratio of 1.42 ( for total of $13.8 trillion in debt including mortgages ) that already matches the country’s $14 trillion G.D.P.
Really? JUST 1.42? I thought it would be much higher.
Meanwhile, I think you ought to take — or perhaps retake — accounting 101. Leverage isn’t the only thing that matters…it’s the quality of the assets you’ve leveraged.
6. The USA has Bushie boy racking up $32 Trillion dollars in total liabilities and unfunded commitments for future payments since 2000.
Ah, the stripes now appear. It’s BUSH’S fault. Man, this guy is responsible for EVERYTHING wrong in some people’s eyes.
You know, I can’t wait till he’s gone. Not because he’s been particularly awful necessarily — I think history will ultimately judge him as fairly as he deserves, which may be a lot better than most think now. It’s that folks like you can stop your perpetually tiresome whining and complaining about him.
7. What and where is the engine for US job growth with pay >$100K /yr. ?
Hmm…so I take it your crystal ball is murky on that one? Color me shocked.
here’s your future, in english and spanish:
http://www.goarmy.com/for_parents/index.jsp?hmref=tn?bl=
Hahahaha. I suspect that BarryR, who knows very well about ShadowStats.com, has not commented on the graph to see the impressions it generates, and what explanations people would come up with for the divergence between the two trends.
But there is a very interesting detail that some commenters have missed: the jobless and unemployed rates were moving together until the 80s recession, but for both the trends was slowly upwards.
The really disturbing thing in the graph above is that after the 80s recession the reported unemployment numbers have broken trends and the gap between them has widened not because the jobless rate has started accelerating, it is still broadly on the same line in 1982-2008 as it was in 1959-1981.
The really big change is that abruptly the unemployed trend has become constant, cycling around the 4% level.
Consider now two possibilities:
* The Reagan Revolution has created such widely spread wealth that the unemployment rate does not go up according to trend because more and more working age usians are retiring fully vested thanks to the Ownership Society.
* Unemployment statistics have been massaged since the 1980s, but jobless statistics are much harder to fib.
Max,
“Meanwhile, unemployment accross the EU is higher than the U.S.; Spain 9%, France 7.5%, and that great engine uber alles of the EU economy, Germany, has an unemployment rate of 9% and climbing.”
NAH.
Only if one is comparing apples and alligators. Europe’s employment is essentially the same as the United States, and they have larger Middle-classes, as a percentage of population:
EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO CHART
‘Employment-Population Ratio’ for people aged 25-54, for the United States (blue), the EU-15 (red), and specifically, France (green).
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THIS IS COMPLETE BS. First of all, lets just think about what these people who are jobless are doing to live. Jobless claims are up, but not up so much as to justify these claims.
Second of all, high tech companies are having a hard time finding labor and have lobbied hard for the government to raise the quota for H1B Visas. And there are many pockets of the US economy where there exist labor shortages (nursing).
I think whats going on is that a lot of people have been dislocated from Rust Belt type manufacturing jobs and are not willing to learn anything new even when offered 100% free retraining. I am sorry, the world won’t wait for those people.
Steve Barry:
Thanks. I’ve got the “Two Million Minutes” piece queued. I’ll watch it sometime this afternoon.
________________
Man, I step out for a few hours, come back and this thread is still going like a freaking energizer bunny!
Really enjoy the diverse comments too. It helps me to bounce my thoughts off of other people’s thinking on the matter. I really appreciate that; because, a lot of the time you hear/think of things and you look around like…….am I nuts? Is anybody else getting this?
This blog is an excellent soundboard for that very thing. A sanity check; if you will.
BG, Marcus Aurelius and others here are right on. The quandary presented to us by the modern economy is in the nature of value. Two hundred years ago (1808 more or less) the main precupation of most Americans was getting enough to eat and remaining healthy in an honorable fashion. He that didn’t work should not eat was a common saying. Work was labor. People were paid for labor. Machines were already making waves. The word sabotage comes from the French name of a shoe. Machine Loom factories going up in France threatened the workers and they threw their sabots (shoes) into the works; hence the term sabotage. My point is that work and productivity were equal in people’s minds. Today, a vestige of this thought remains in employers and CEOs. They look at what produces the most productivity and they see a CAD CAM machine group. They’ve figured it out! They just haven’t told the rest of us about it. Education, smeducation! Who needs it when you have computers? We are facing the fact that compassion for workers has always been a half truth. Now that machines are more productive than workers, the fangs are out. This is the REAL big picture.
Some of you may laugh this off but those of you like me that know how machines work and think on the lowest level understand that machines are not a danger to humanity. The danger to humanity is the egotistical people who think that social well being is a good security service. I’m willing to bet that those same types are looking at the coming sex bots and asking what they need people for?
I find it reprehensible and vile that anyone would say:
“Please don’t overlook the fact that there is a large segment of the population that is “unemployable”. They lack the necessary social skills, work ethic and training to make them worth hiring.”
That statement reeks of innuendos that are meant to divide humanity. I have worked with thousands of people in my life from all nations, creed and education level. Never once I have ever met a person that was unemployable. Economic opportunity provides one with dignity, self-respect and self-worth. I have never met anyone not wanting of these traits. That is, unless they were unable to care for themselves as a result of natural cause.
Karl K,
Thanks for taking on the left-wing myths, constant liberal whining, and blaming Bush for everything bad in this country.
I agree with you 100%. The left wing whiners do not even realize what is waiting for them under Obama. It is easy to blame Bush for everything, and to give unrealistic promises of manna falling from the sky. We will see when it comes to actually doing something about it, disappointing the whiners with unfulfilled promises, and not dealing with the religious Islamic fanatics (Liberals think that if they nice to the fanatics, the religious fanatics will be nice to them. It was Bill Clinton’s strategy and it has failed miserably on 9/11. It reminds me of one idiot on TV who thought that he can be friends with the wild bears if he is nice to them. It worked a couple of times until one bear has eaten him alive.)
As everywhere in the world, there are problems in this country. So far, I did not hear any meaningful solutions neither from Billary nor from Barak Hussein Obama – only blaming and whining.
____________________________________________
VJ,
If you want to be taken seriously, you should stop using Paul Krugman’s data and presenting his data as the facts.
____________________________________________
Floyd,
Are you blaming the consequences of female emancipation since 1960’s (lower jobless rates for women and reciprocally higher jobless rates for men) on Bush too? I am sure that some feminist groups will not be happy with you for not giving them the credit.
WORK!!! What, ME WORK?
Maynard G. Krebs
I never thought the gap between two lines could produce so much.
bdg123,
Exactly right!
You have to look at the mindset of someone who even uses the word “unemployable”. In business, they assume that someone not getting wages is “unemployed”. However, unemployment is considered a government (i.e. social) problem for a country. How convenient. The business environment misallocates capital, has losses, has more bankruptcy or outsourcing and unemployment goes up. Some of the unemployed get desperate or adopt the mores of a CEO and start stealing or pushing drugs and end up in jail. Hence more “social” costs. Of course, the business people scream they had nothing to do with tha-a-at. It’s pocketbook hypocracy, pure and simple. Every trite expression about hard work and industriousness hides a lazy butt who is itching to go back to the golf course.
What’s the solution?
1) Corruption proof transparency in business and government. No more chrony, tribe, family, race, religion, buddy or lover advantages.
2) 100% Required government participation by all citizens.
How can that be accomplished?
Open Source computer programs that monitor all human decisions and publish the cold blooded computer analysis of the motives for and effects of said decisions on the decider and those affected by the decision.
Maybe by 2108?
my letter above … if we gotta do it by existing rules
if we could invent a system without money … like carbon credits … time on clock + education + hazardous element + experience = living
jobs that exist to people able to work … excess people put to retirement pasture with needs provided … bored old folks / let kids party until 30yo or system needs
I know … we get the lazy factor and running a heating system for the outside
:-( :-| :-) :-| :-(
what say you G7 / G8?
And another thing!
Seriously, do those of you who mention politicians think they are responsible for our plight or our well being? Those people are puppets! Very wealthy groups use them as front men. If you don’t believe me, just look at virtually all our presidents. Their age visibly and rapidly. If you’re doing what you want, is that what would happen to you? THINK, people.
David,
“Please don’t overlook the fact that there is a large segment of the population that is ‘unemployable’.”
Somebody musta forgot to tell them that when the national workforce swelled to historic levels from 1993 to 2000:
U.S. CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT-TO-POPULATION RATIO
.
Those of us in the pride always encourage the wife to hunt.
It seems we have evolved from ‘wanting work’ to ‘the right to work’ to ‘the duty to work’ back to ‘wanting to work.’ Super cycle me.
Arbeit Macht Frei, comrades. Weimar is not far off.
Reg0658,
“Running a heating system for the outside” says it all. Suppose that “inside” includes the biosphere. What does running a heating system for the outside mean then? No welfare for Martians?
“McBush policy of never-ending wars with sky high deficits or Hillary/Obama policy of big government/high taxes. I think Bush is the worst president ever. It’s unfathomable to me that McCain runs on endorsing Bush policy and he insults my intelligence.”
You got half of that right. Where on earth do you get big government/high taxes from either Obama or Clinton ? The only thing I’ve heard is rolling back the Bush tax cuts, where aren’t tax cuts, anyway, but rather deferred taxes.
Blissex,
“The Reagan Revolution has created such widely spread wealth…”
That’s a non-starter.
It’s documented that contrary to the decades prior to the early ’80s, income mobility between generations has been falling ever since, with most children of rich parents staying rich, and most children of the poor staying poor, since the “Reagan Revolution” (excluding the reversal during ’93-2000).
The “Reagan Revolution” did not produce “widely spread wealth”, but instead wealth concentrated at the top, and a declining Standard of Living for the rest of the vast overwhelming majority of Americans.
.
VJ, what makes it better is the fact that being unemployed in many of those countries is nothing like being unemployed here in the US. There? You still have health care and you might be able to get an education. Here? After 6 months (assuming you even QUALIFY for unemployment insurance) You’re On Your Own.
VJ: “the national workforce swelled to historic levels from 1993 to 2000”
But the “swelling” was twice as much during Reagan.
1983-1990 Reagan Era, the “swelling” was by 10.5%
1993-2000 Clinton Era, the “swelling” was by 5.5%
2003-present Bush Era, the “swelling” is by 2.5%
There is a trend (Reagan 10.5% => Clinton 5.5% => Bush 2.5%)
Is Bush to blame for the trend or it the law of big numbers?
H1B visas and outsourcing put me out of work long ago. I ain’t working for illegal immigrant wages.
DeadMarketFundamentalistEconomistWorship: “You still have health care and you might be able to get an education.”
Why don’t you go “there”?
I used to live “there” and know.
The health care over “there” sucks. Period.
As far as the education, it depends. High school education is very good over “there”. Higher level education (graduate schools) is much better “here” in the US; actually US graduate schools are the best in the world.
“Is it reasonable to ask if the large increase in female employment over these years mitigates the effect of rising joblessness of men?”
It is reasonable but it turns out the answer is rather counter-intuitive: (a) Average family income is higher in real terms over the past 30+ years but it takes 2 wage earners to make that happen because (b) wage increases for men have been flat (actually slightly negative) over the same period and (c) the net impact on family wealth turns out to be negative regardless because the costs of non-discretionary core items such as housing, health and education have skyrocketed; e.g., http://tinyurl.com/5f9jhv (hat tip Mark Thoma; 50 min talk begins about 5 min into video). Shorter version, the gerbil is running as fast to keep up with the wheel but is still losing ground.
The US graduate school system remains top-notch and China and India’s educational systems are generally inferior to our own overall (with some notable exceptions that very few citizens in the US would qualify for) but since the law of large (‘big’) numbers has been mentioned people should remember it here too; e.g., if you consider the top 25% of children based on IQ as potential honors students then China has more potential honors students than we have students total.
“… high tech companies are having a hard time finding [CHEAP American] labor and have lobbied hard for the government to raise the quota for H1B Visas …”
I “fixed” your comment. You’re welcome.
Stop,
“It was Bill Clinton’s strategy and it has failed miserably on 9/11.”
That would have been a good trick since he was no longer in office.
* Not to mention that “Bill Clinton’s strategy” stopped (in progress) an attempt to blow up the Holland Tunnel, the Lincoln Tunnel, and the George Washington Bridge. Stopped already planned attacks to blow up the U.N. General Assembly building, to blow up the New York FBI building, to blow up the Space Needle in Seattle, to blow up the Boston airport, to blow up the L.A.X. airport, to blow up the Israeli Embassy in Washington, to blow up the US Embassy in Albania, and two attempts to plant bombs in specific cites in the Northeast and the Northwest of the United States. Not to mention stopping an attempt on the life of the Pope, an attempt to blow up the biggest hotel in Jordan, and an attempted bombing of a Christian site in Bethlehem. Oh, and let’s not forget preventing an on schedule plan to hijack and blow up 12 U.S. civilian airliners simultaneously on a single day in the Western United States.
Conversely, it was the Bushie’s failed strategy that “failed miserably on 9/11“.
They CUT the number of FBI agents assigned to counterterrorism and CUT counterterrorism funding, after the Clinton administration had DOUBLED funding for counterterrorism and assigned more FBI agents to counterterrorism.
They decided it was more important to keep to their vacation schedule than respond to the numerous warnings they were given.
~~~
“If you want to be taken seriously…”
By the Purple Kool-Aid drinkers ?
No thanks.
“you should stop using Paul Krugman’s data”
It’s not “Paul Krugman’s data”, it is data of each referenced country respectively, that Krugman just happened to cite.
Amazing how so many these days lack the ability to differentiate between reality/factual data and commentary/opinion.
.
engineer al: While “cheap” is an important aspect, “American” labor does not work under the threat of deportation after losing their primary job. (H1-Bs can switch employers too, but have to stay within their relatively narrow specialty, and have to find a sponsoring employer to begin with, and any applicable Green card process will generally have to start over.)
A few thoughts in no particular order:
– The female participation rate has grown (though peaked ~1999 IIRC). As noted earlier, this has allowed alternate lifestyle choices (eg. stay at home dads).
– More students stay in school longer, and student workforce participation rates have dropped.
– As the boomers age, some will be dropping out of the workforce (illness, injury, early retirement, etc.), offset (though not necessarily in this cohort) by older workers continuing to participate after retirement.
– Contract employment and freelancing has grown over the period. The article doesn’t give specific sources or say how or if this is handled in the data.
– Incarceration rates have grown.
– Interestingly, the participation rate of those with less than high school bottomed around 1994, and bounced back. Participation rates for graduates though, have been broadly dropping since the late 90’s. See Chart 6 of this fed report .
There are obviously a lot of factors involved, and it’s sad to see so many simplistic and dogmatic comments.
Kara,
“But the ‘swelling’ was twice as much during Reagan.”
No.
“1983-1990 Reagan Era, the ‘swelling’ was by 10.5%”
It went from just under 60% to 62% from 1981 through 1988. IRS data shows that not a single NET new job paying over 20K was added during that time period. Not to mention there was NEGATIVE job growth in the private-sector during Poppy Bush’s subsequent four years.
“1993-2000 Clinton Era, the ‘swelling’ was by 5.5%”
It went from 61% to almost 65%.
“2003-present Bush Era, the ‘swelling’ is by 2.5%”
What “swelling” ? From the end of 2000 to present there has been NEGATIVE job growth.
.
“Only 3% of African Americans, 4% of Hispanics, 20% of Whites and 34% of Asians in America are proficient in Math by 12th grade.”
This is the reason for inequality (not Bush’s policies). 97% of blacks are not proficient in math by 12th grade. You cannot say that this is because of discrimination and you cannot say that Bush is responsible for them not learning Math in high school and not getting the good paying jobs as the result.
Unless we talk about the real problems, we will not be able to fix them — being politically correct and blaming Bush for this will not solve this problem.
Reagan 10.5% => Clinton 5.5% => Bush 2.5%
these numbers don’t mean much w/out context. under reagan with 1983 as the start did they grow 10% b/c that came off of record high unemployment? because wives had to go to work? under clinton was it slower due of a demographic dip? under bush slower still because of housing appreciation? under obama/clinton/mccain will it spike be because boomers finally realize they won’t be able to retire anytime soon?
I view the age 54 cutoff as likely to significantly skew the numbers in the future – if not already. Our country is aging and a huge portion of the population will be above the age 54 (as the baby boomer surge continues to age) – the ones that are unemployed will not be included in the unemployment rate, although they may comprise a significant proportion of the population.
also, i can’t find anything about whether incarcerated men are included in the chart. anyone?
How many of these jobs are being occupied by women who should be home taking care of children? (At least until the kid gets to 3)
I say, do not underestimate the cohort of 28 year old losers in their parents basement on their Playstation.
B,
The unemployment rate is based on a household survey. If a 100 year old answers the phone and says they looked for a job but couldn’t find one, they’re counted as unemployed AFAIK.
A guy called john,
The jobless number appears to be the number of men drawing breath in that age cohort (which I have to assume would include inmates), minus the number of men with jobs in that cohort. There’s no specific data source though, so we can only assume that the rise in incarcerations contributes to the lower participation rate.
I was out of work from 2001-2003 after the tech boom (I am an engineer). I was never counted in any of the statistics. (That is partly because I quit my job, which left me unable to get unemployment benefits – I foolishly thought I could get another job quickly. Also no one ever called me to poll me about whether I was employed etc.)
There are a lot of ways to be dropped out of the numbers. I also noticed during that bust that a lot of two-income households had become one-income households.
Since then, I don’t trust the official statistics. Or rather, when they say unemployment went up, I believe that it went up, and when they say down, I believe down. But as for the percentages, they must be understated.
VJ,
Either you are ill informed or you are full of it (posting B.S. for political reasons).
Here is the supporting evidence of Clinton’s ignorance (the events started with his presidency):
February 1993, al Qaeda places a truck with explosives in North Tower of WTC garage, opening a 100 foot hole through 5 sublevels and killing five Americans
October 1993, CIA and DIA reports place al Qaeda operatives in Somalia
In 1995, al Qaeda detonates a car bomb outside of US office in Saudi Arabia, killing five and wounding 60 Americans
In 1996, Al Qaeda bombed the barracks of American pilots controlling the “no-fly” zones over Iraq, killing 19 Americans
In 1997, al Qaeda consolidates its position in Afghanistan and bin Laden repeatedly declares war on the US.
February 1997, bin Laden on Arab TV: “If someone can kill an American, it is better than wasting time on other matters”. No response what so ever from the Clinton administration
In 1998, al Qaeda simultaneously bombed US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing 224 people, including 12 US diplomats. “Operation Infinite Reach” was weakened by Clinton’s diplomacy – notifying Pakistan’s Army before the planned attack on al Qaeda. Given Pakistan’s links to al Qaeda at that time, bin Laden was tipped off, fleeing 45 minutes before the missiles attack.
October 2000, al Qaeda bomb ripped a hole in the hull of the USS Cole, killing 17 and wounding 39 Americans.
“While “cheap” is an important aspect, “American” labor does not work under the threat of deportation after losing their primary job.”
The threat of deportation is the biggest part of what keeps H1B labor “cheap”. If the H1B man, once in the USA, was free to move around here on his own he’d be no different than any of the rest of us and he’d be of less “value” to his employer.
I watched a mass layoff and plant closing several years ago up close and personal. Even as the regular employees were shown the door, the H1B guys were originally going with us. With their job loss and deportation looming, the H1B guys lined up to whine and were granted a layoff reprieve long enough for our employer to find them new positions with competitors. That was a whole lot more help than the rest of us got from ’em. We had one Mandarin H1B guy who didn’t even speak English … not one word. He communicated with sign language and math.
KKK Karl @ Apr 12, 2008 1:38:17 PM
What exactly do you reveal perspective wise aside from showing all of us that you’re a asshat of the first order !
almost time for #5 “Empire Strikes Back”
live tv with commercials in order
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em_sxKHQekk
East we got problems .. but we are ……………..
“Damn Good Times” David Lee Roth
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BxHfjBcfrs
a great world in the making
“Someday Soon” – FirefallII
and/or “So Long”
VJ
making things up again
km4 wrote
,i>KKK Karl @ Apr 12, 2008 1:38:17 PM
What exactly do you reveal perspective wise aside from showing all of us that you’re a asshat of the first order !
I see. So I destroy your arguments, and you engage in jejune schoolyard name calling, affiliating me, without any evidence or justifaciation, to a racist organization.
I am sorry, there is only one word to describe this: pathetic.
engineer al: I don’t mean to argue with you. The degree of your leverage or encumbrances figures big in everything as it comes to terms/conditions. Price of course, but not just. People may also take more crap and will not be as quick to run away. I.e. more “flexibility” and “stability”.
I used to be an H1B (not from Asia), with many H1B coworkers. In my circumstances I wouldn’t have faced deportation, but possibly a downgrade to a non-working visa status, or so I was told.
B- For what it is worth, I referred my favorite sports blog to your comment policy. His page was increasing full of belligerences. With regard to a popular site the best way to run open comments is to ban the few that cannot play by the rules. The 3% unable to pose an argument in rational fashion own no right to dominate free discourse. I’d be delighted if he follows your model, thanks
It was my understanding that our H1B crew would have “eventually” faced deportation. Maybe 30 days after the layoff before the G-men took notice?
What the specifics were, I don’t know.
I know there were some very long faces about their eventual forced return to China, before our HR people reworked their “layoffs” into something kinder and gentler. I’m sure that most, if not all of them, managed to stay here.
Commonly, our native under 40 year old engineering staff seemed to have found other direct employment while the over 40 crowd have drifted into contract work. By all rights, it should be the other way around instead.
It almost looks like we are in a secular recession since 2000:
1969-1983 looked like a secular recession as well followed by the secular boom of 83-00.
Similiary the post-WWII boom crested in 68 was the biggest boom in American history.
engineer al: At the risk of belaboring this too much, I could have stayed in the country as a resident spouse, but probably without employment authorization. Not a very favorable outcome either. I didn’t actually lose my job and in fact still am with the same employer, even after having gotten my GC.
At the time (around 99) my employer was suffering from people bolting left and right to join exciting startups. These days that’s not an “issue” any longer, quite the reverse. Many have been coming back.
The big H1B import ended quickly after the dotcom bust, to be replaced by offshoring to Asia and other “low cost jurisdictions”, which looks like it’s stagnating now too. In my specialty, I don’t believe the “contractor” gambit will work, but I see it’s on the rise elsewhere.
It’s a little late to post on this, but:
1. Incarcerated folks are NOT included in labor force data–civilian noninstitutionalized only.
2. Getting an unemployment check doesn’t factor into unemployment. It’s based on a 60,000 household monthly survey. You’re either employed, unemployed (actively seeking work), or not in the labor force.
3. Watch out for shifting demographics–some of the drop in the 22-54 participation rate is because the rate is lower for older (45+) than younger, and the population has shifted. In fact, two-thirds of the drop in the overall participation rate over the last 10 years is due to demographics, one-third to a drop in the rate over most age groups, male and female.
4. Since 1960, labor force participation rates have declined for all men 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, and for African-American men in those age groups as well. The rate for African American men moved up sharply in the late 1990s before falling back down again in the recession (and not moving up since).
5. So why have rates fallen? Maybe detailed survey data is available on those not in the labor force–students vs. retirees vs. dislocated workers vs. discouraged workers vs. slackers… the rates dropped quite a bit from late 1960s to late 1970s, stabilized until late 1980s, and then dropped again until mid 1990s. They trickled down again with the 2001 recession.
6. For those of you who don’t trust the numbers because you were never polled– you weren’t the only one in your predicament, and the sample is huge, random and stratified. If it didn’t get you, it got some other jobless engineer. The areas it falls short in are Native Americans, and inner city poor, because the Census doesn’t do the best job in picking up those folks.
What strikes me most about the graph is the way both rates move in lockstep. If the jobless rate were significantly affected by people who aren’t affected by economic cycles (retired, independently wealthy, disabled, hobos, etc.), then that rate would move more independently.
The fact that it doesn’t makes me think the “jobless” men of this statistic are mostly the same as the unemployed: guys who would work if they thought they could get a job.
The fact that these numbers are based on the 100-X% of the employment to population ratio for the civilian, non-institutional male population age 25-54 means it doesn’t include the incarcerated. Since rates of incarceration are at record levels in this country, one presumes that our potential workforce is even more underutilized than otherwise implied.
Interesting, but the facts are that we need several things for this country to continue to lead as it has since the first world war.
First, we need an amendment to the constitution that our national government can only spend what it takes in, except in times of declared war. A balanced budget amendment. Has to happen. Our fiat currency has been ruined by congress and the president catering their excess spending to the ruin of future generations.
Second, the CEO of FEDEX said this weekend that the US has to become energy independent, or our financial drain will continue…how do we do that? France uses nuclear energy, Brazil uses ethanol and flex fuel engines, we are just now tapping oil sands and have more coal, and the scrubber technologies to use it…there are many ways, even a pine tree can give up its resin during processing and not harm the residual wood product.
Third, entitlements have to end, or at least be capped so that the burdens of entitlements don’t continue for future generations…no tapping into social security for payment of general obligations in the budget, for instance.
Many, if not most, of our ills, come from ill considered government.
Posted by: Karl K | Apr 12, 2008 9:45:01 PM
I see KKK Karl is also Conan the Destroyer.
You’re delusional and obviously live is LaLa land.
” So the economy that gave us huge advances in agriculture, computing power, software, digitization, industrial robotics, and medicine and productivity gains in general ”
Maybe you missed the latest stats but the US in a net IMPORTER of computer hardware and software.
“What gives US the right to complain that the Indians and Chinese want to improve their standard of living? What gives us the right to complain that they are taking jobs from us?”
If you have to ask what is wrong with IBM firing 75.000 US workers and replacing them with 75,000 Indians then you wouldn’t understand the answer.
IBM has sent hundreds of jobs to Brazil and they are supported by Indian support and they constantly complain that Indian support does not answer questions or even speak good English.
The US standard of living is in the tank and sinking. Even Daimler said well, we won’t sell any cars in the US but emerging markets will more than make up the difference. Read the trends, not your politics.
“Third, entitlements have to end, or at least be capped so that the burdens of entitlements don’t continue for future generations…no tapping into social security for payment of general obligations in the budget, for instance”
Spoken like a future CEO. Workers work for 25 years and then oops, we can[t afford the pension plan you paid into or the health care we promised so you are on your won. And then Bruce runs off to Martha’s Vineyard and builds a mansion with the IBM pension fund.
hey me – I sometimes wonder, if say, sovereign wealth funds of say The British Empire are responsible?
or its just the game of Risk again
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_%28game%29
Glad I persevered to the bottom of this thread and read ScottB’s post with its welcome expertise.
“In fact, two-thirds of the drop in the overall participation rate over the last 10 years is due to demographics, one-third to a drop in the rate over most age groups, male and female.”
sorry Greg0658, was that supposed to make sense?
on your general discussion of America falling down
I sometimes consider the Revolutionary War from the standpoint that maybe it ended as a battle with 300 years post for the finale
Capt,
“Either you are ill informed or you are full of it (posting B.S. for political reasons).”
I’m afraid not.
“February 1993, al Qaeda places a truck with explosives in North Tower of WTC garage, opening a 100 foot hole through 5 sublevels and killing five Americans”
And President Clinton sent a Special Forces team to pluck the mastermind of the first World Trade Center attack, Ramzi Yousef, out of Pakistan and return him to the U.S. for trial. He is serving a 240-year prison term, plus another life sentence just in case, all to be spent in solitary confinement. The 5 co-conspirators involved in the bombing were also captured by the Clinton administration, and all are also serving life prison terms.
“In 1995, al Qaeda detonates a car bomb outside of US office in Saudi Arabia, killing five and wounding 60 Americans”
Of the 14 men involved in the Khobar Towers bombing, some have been executed by the Saudis, and in an agreement made with the Clinton administration, the rest are being held in prison by the Saudis since shortly after the attack.
“In 1998, al Qaeda simultaneously bombed US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, killing 224 people, including 12 US diplomats.”
The 4 al-Qaeda terrorists involved in the embassy bombings were caught, tried, and convicted. All four are serving life prison terms.
“October 2000, al Qaeda bomb ripped a hole in the hull of the USS Cole, killing 17 and wounding 39 Americans.”
In concert with the Clinton administration, the 6 men were captured in Yemen, and in an agreement made with the Clinton administration, were placed in a Yemen prison.
* Contrast that record of hunting down and imprisoning terrorists with Chimpy’s record. He had Osama bin Laden, Mullah Omar, and their al-Qaeda followers who attacked us and killed 3,000 Americans on his watch surrounded in Afghanistan at Tora Bora, but his sheer incompetence allowed them to escape, and he STILL can’t find them.
* According to statistics released by the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) and contained within the annual State Department ‘Country Reports on Terrorism’, as a result of the Bushies failed policies and illegal invasion and occupation of Iraq, terrorist attacks worldwide TRIPLED from 2003 to 2004 and terrorist attacks worldwide QUADRUPLED again from 2004 to 2005.
Their incompetence knows no bounds.
.