Succinct Summations for the week ending March 10th, 2017.
Positives:
1. Nonfarm payrolls rose from 227k previously to 235k, above the 200k expected. Last month was revised higher to 238k. (private sector added 227k, 8k above the forecast)
2. Unemployment fell to 4.7% (in line with expectations).
3. Americans report they spent an average of $101 in February, the highest since early 2008.
4. Hourly Earnings grew at a 2.8% annualized rate.
5.Good job growth in January and February with GDP growth for Q1 expected to be 1-1.5% implies still weak productivity growth and a negative impact on profit margins.
6. ADP employment rose from 246k to 298k, way above the 183k expected.
7. MBA mortgage application composite index rose 1.7% w/o/w and 3.8% y/o/y. Refi’s were up by 5.2% w/o/w but still down 34% y/o/y
8. Nonfarm productivity rose 1.3% q/o/q, in line with expectations.
Negatives:
1. Factory orders ex-aircraft rose just 0.3%, ex-aircraft and nondefense fell 0.1%.
2. Initial jobless claims rose 20k to 243k, but the 4-week average remains low at 236.5k.
3. Nonrevolving credit fell $3.8 billion for the first decline since February 2016 and the largest fall since December 2012.
4. Import prices rose 4.6% y/o/y, much of which is from the rebound in energy.
5. Student debt keeps going higher.In January, consumer debt held by the federal government — all student loans — totaled $1.077T, up $27b from December and higher by $33b from November (non seasonally adjusted). This is up more than $1T since 2010.
6.US trade deficit widened to the biggest level since 2012 in January.
Thanks, Mike!
