OMG: This is simply too funny at 2:17 pm:
Standard & Poor’s cut some of its credit ratings on investment bank
Bear Stearns Friday following news of the bank’s cash crisis and
emergency bailout.S&P cut its long-term counterparty rating on Bear Stearns to "BBB" from "A" and its short-term rating to "A-3" from "A-1."
S&P
said Bear Stearns’ need for temporary financing to continue operating
normally led to the downgrade. Earlier Friday, Bear Stearns said it is
receiving a financing line from JPMorgan Chase that is secured by the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York.The agency also placed the
bank’s long- and short-term ratings on negative watch, meaning they
could be downgraded in the next three months.
WTF is going on at S&P ? Are these guys smoking the chronic?
PUT THE BLUNT DOWN AND BACK AWAY FROM THE KEYBOARD.
>
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Source:
S&P Cuts Bear Stearns’ Rating
AP, Friday March 14, 2:21 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080314/bear_stearns_ratings.html?.v=1
You just have to get calibrated, Barry.
Obviously BBB means “very chancy junk.”
Thus A means chancy junk, AA means junk, and AAA means, well, still junk.
As for S&P, well, sometimes a girl’s gotta do what a girl’s gotta do to get a f, eerr, buck.
I guess S&P realizes that TOO many financial institutions are carrying way too much bad debt…all they can do…is wait until financial institutions collapse…and then downgrade them.
They lost their credibility long ago.
There goes the dollar…
Didn’t those A$$clowns just say we’ve seen the last of the losses? Is everyone on Wall Street clueless?
Aren’t these the clowns who said the subprime write-downs are almost complete; clowns, lol.
“Could be downgraded in the next three months.”
Oh, surely they wouldn’t take such precipitous and unwarranted action as that! So hasty!
Besides, aren’t we way overdue for an AMBAC bailout rumor? I think I’m going through withdrawal…
Damn, when they raid the whorehouse, they even take the piano player.
I’m even getting short term bullish. SOMEBODY STOP ME.
BBB: Bear’s Back in Business!
The people on Wall Street aren’t the true assclowns. The people who believe the people on Wall Street are real assclowns.
Par for the course anymore. This is now a dark comedy.
think they are going to start at 3 or earlier today
Where are Cinefoz and the other permabulls?
Even after Tuesday’s ‘miracle rally’ the Dow is lower for the week.
And with all the destruction to the dollar this week, the Dow is down even further in real terms.
I know; this must be the bottom! Buy! Buy! Buy!
Barry, I can hear Marley in the background. They are definitely doing the chronic, but I’m thinking water bong for these these boys and girls of S & P because you can’t get close to where they are on a blunt.
no they will save it for monday……..today is already toast.
Monday is when we will be told that JPM shooting BSC is the end of the credit crisis.
For me, it’s always been a solvency issue, today made that painfully obvious to even the unaware.
Ciao
MS
What a shame Larry Kudlow’s interview with president Bush wasn’t taped after the Bear Stearns news. Larry would’ve had the red meat of his life right in front of him….
Long time lurker….first post. Fantastic website Barry.
Just was wondering if this guy Art Laffer is an idiot or what…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o
Barry we clearly need a S&P guide just like you published the equity research guide when you said a Buy rating = sell and hold = run for the hills.
Here’s my best shot
AAA = we were paid ludicrous money, everyone gets a 2nd vacation home
AA = they coulda and shoulda paid more, but the dinners were pretty good
A = buncha broke bastards, they didn’t even tip us
BBB = these a-holes actually wanted a straight up rating, no cash under the table
BB & under – rated by our interns who make minimum wage, so we have no friggin clue what’s going on here
Oh, and btw,
The once powerful US$ is now worth less than a Swiss Franc, and it only buys 99 Yen.
Congrats Ben.
“How’s that ‘strong dollar’ policy workin’ for you Mr. President?”
Our gov’t is in our market today buying billions of $’s of US shares.
S&P applies a little A-1 sauce for a very well-done BSC. a lot of New Yorker co-op owners getting thrown back on the barbie
You know, it’s one thing to be the lone voice in the wilderness who has clarity of vision.
It’s another to enjoy the problems of others so much. This is a common theme I know, but I’m starting to think your problem is more than just attitude. I’m seriously starting to think you are a little off.
I don’t think the credibility you have worked so hard for is deserved at this point.
~~~
BR: Understand who I am trashing here — not BSC, but S&P.
As to credibility, I am at a loss to comprehend my loss of crediblity . . .
Barry:
You really didn’t expect anything else, did you…..?
I mean, did you…..?
Best regards,
Econolicious
75 or 100 basis point cut?
Hmm. Did they ever get around to downgrading Enron?
It’s another to enjoy the problems of others so much. This is a common theme I know, but I’m starting to think your problem is more than just attitude. I’m seriously starting to think you are a little off.
I don’t think the credibility you have worked so hard for is deserved at this point.
Posted by: cinefoz | Mar 14, 2008 3:04:47 PM
——
Says the anonymous poster who loves to flaunt the “boatloads” of money that he “makes” when the market is green.
How’s that housing call looking, cinefoz?
cfz;thanks for condescending
hey, look, it’s Charlie Gasparino telling us who’s going to be bailing out BSC over the weekend! the only thing that seems to change is the name of the firm in trubble….
I would think other companies facing similar problems to Bear Stearns are gonna want to declare soon. Before the Fed runs out of money.
Given dollar plunge…price of oil…Bear Stearns…how is Dow down only 174???
Must be a higher force guiding it (wink).
Barry,
you wanted to know what the ratings agencies are smoking?
maybe they’re not…and
maybe that’s the problem.
i’m thinkin if they lit up that could only improve things, No?
you know imagine the S&P spokesperson before the camera, ( in a cheech voice) hey man..we can’t seriously rate this turd, you know, cuz it’s toast…you know what i mean…(chong pipes in) yeah man toast like us…. hahahahahahaha
all kidding aside…over at marketwatch they are reporting there was a kind-of-a-run (my words not theirs) on assets at BS…in the last day or two.
Mock,
Here’s what marijuana can do to lighten up a mood.
And Your Bird Can Sing>/a>
Closing green might be a bit of a stretch (might) but as I said yesterday, down 2% is not permitted.
The cinefoz contrary indicator is blinking green. Buy. He’s expressing “concern”, blaming the BSC mess on foreign financial terrorists – certainly the macro environment or credit crisis couldn’t explain this.
No small investor in their right mind is buying stocks here…who else could it be. Usually that’s a contrarian buy opportunity. In this case though the smaller guy knows how bad it is…not those guys on WS, DC and the ivory towers. Think SPITZER!!!
Hey, it’s 3:30 and close to technical support again!
Time for a stick save …what will the rumor be today?
– Maybe Berkshire is planning to buy Bear Sterns??
– Maybe there is a super secret plan for the Fed to trade $1 trillion for BBB or higher paper??
Oh, who am I kidding …I’m just not evil enough to think up this stuff.
Two songs I’m listening to now…George Harrison’s “What a Pity” and Lennon’s “Instant Karma”
Laffler = LAUGHLER
Great clip. Stored for posterity.
Where’s the penny?
SORRY Barry somebody have to tell ya that you don’t know a sh*t, you deserved to be the worse worst talking head of the year. Why don’t you tell us which bank is good and which bank is in bad condition before the news broke huh???
…made the front page of Marketwatch
12:50pm PDT
Bear Stearns headquarters, Manhattan.
‘I should walk over and make a bid for their building, which is really nice.’
— Barry Ritholtz, Ritholtz Research
Dee Leverage —
Thanks for making my week with the Beatles alt take. Lovely.
What to say that isn’t so obvious, nothing further about the rating agencies needs be said.
I have been watching the markets for 10 years and thats not to say that i am an expert by any stretch of the imagination. Perhaps i was too ignorant or not “seasoned” enough to realize it in the “great” bear market of 2000.
But the governments’s activity via the treasury and the FED seems to be so over the top, so in your face manipulation the likes i think havent been seen in decades. Whats their point? Are they worried about stock market tax revenues plummeting like it did in 2001 and creating a bigger deficit. Why the aversion to letting markets drop and banks fail? Whats the bigger picture i am missing?
Bush stated that “the treasury, the FED and JPM are working hard to keep the markets orderly.” In the past these things were behind closed doors, now it seems like the PPT is involved all day long making sure we dont drop more than 2%. They seem to feel like its a good thing that the market is backstopped by the printing presses. I just dont get it..
Any thoughts?
cinefoz – Apparently BR’s in the market for a nice office building – Back up the truck.
They are desperate to avert a stock market crash on Bush’s watch. It’s that simple.
Holy crap, Barry that’s the funniest commentary I’ve heard. Can just see the Onion headline, S&P breaks away from a screening of “up in smoke” to cut bear ratings, at 4:20. And promises to evaluate Thornburg after a Denny’s break.
The idea is to keep the wobbly wheels on until the next Administration takes office, then let them fall off.
That was pretty funny! It just shows how inept this whole thing has become.
You great quote re: Bear Sterns HQ building is on the top of the MarketWatch homepage as I write this (4:40 NYC Time)
I am concerned about the moral hazzard that is developing based on the Fed’s position. More bailouts for homeowners, more for Banks all means more money printing and that is inflation ready to be beset uppon the economy. I thought the New Deal ended about 50 years ago….cycles happen yet not the check inflation will lead to the ‘cruel tax’ for all to share.
This has to be the funniest post on an economic blog in an age. Both the facts and the commentary. Thanks for the chuckle.
I expect the announcement soon that any rock on the street can be used as currency in whatever denomination you can dream up.
Welcome to the funny farm.
What’s the deal with Lehman getting a $2B credit line from FORTY different institutions? I mean seriously, 2 bills should be a drop in the bucket for these guys. The need to syndicate a tiny credit line across 40 different players is an ominous sign but I guess the 15% share price hit says investors think the same thing.
Now I know why Barry didnt want us to vote Cinefoz off the blog. He is great for a weekend of laughs. As of last week, the Cinester quoted he has been long since January and averaging down since and is now B/E. Nice trick Cinny. (BTW, you forgot your post last month where you claimed to have invested your last 2.5% of cash.)
I enjoy other points of view, thats what a blog is all about, and god knows I am not always right. But when you are so arrogant and demeaning it almost demands you eat crow.
I feel some ridiculous, gross executive compensation increases coming their way. After all isn’t that the way it works on WS ;-|
A bail out of a primary dealer has now given Ben a bigger thing to swing than Alan ever had. Before it’s over, we will all wish we never heard his name. Maybe we will say the US was Bernanked….a term for any bankrupt entity kept financially alive with smoke and mirrors. Welcome to the United States of Debtors. The old Russian politicos must be laughing over their vodkas watching the mighty U.S. destroy its currency and choking on debt. Jim Rogers was correct today calling for Ben’s resignation. Hopefully someone in the White House is listening.
The Govt doesn’t want another stock market meltdown because every working man and woman (especially govt employees who get huge pension contributions based on taxpayer dollars) are invested in the stock market via their pension or 401k plans.
Because the .com crash wiped out $7 Trillion of net worth, most pension plans are still to this day underfunded. 401k plans, who cares, the little guy takes the hit, but defined benefit pension plans are where the real problems lie. Another market meltdown and instead of these pension funds being only 20% underfunded, they will be 30 – 40% underfunded. Then, the real fun begins on trying to figure out how to raise taxes on a general public who is essential all bankrupt.
Can’t save the government workers retirements if the private sector has no mo money……
This is what Peter Tosh called the “shitstem.”
And S&P is smoking it down to the fingernails.
So much chatter about how the BSC situation signals THE bottom. Wrong. Maybe a trading bottom, but the really big bottoms are not made when everyone is looking for signs of them at every turn. The big bottom will be made when everyone and their mother are puking perfectly good stocks and swearing never to buy stocks again ever. The only puking I see right now is in the dollar. To me a more likely bottom in stocks 20-50% lower looks like this: dollar gets lift, commodities sell off hard, run on major hedgefunds, major bank failures, Fed cuts rates decisively, pulls out the biggest stops and market yawns, drops, no bids. Sadly, however, there are so many scenarios for how we could go 20-50% lower that it would take a quant to keep track of them.
I think the Fantastic Fed (you know, the one that believes in free markets, which it nonetheless must regulate and do so with its good forecasts of the future, while it considers it impossible to identify the bubbles it creates or the consequences of lax(ative) lending while intoxicated on fees), had two unattractive options (as usual): try to save BSC (until a takeover can be arranged, if possible) to avoid a domino effect in the derivatives market or to look away and thereby set a higher treshold for what too big to fail means (which could be interpreted to mean that the Fed knows that this is only the beginning and it needs to save its powder for bigger things). The problem now is that if BSC was too big to fail, then the Fed/goverment also may have to bail out FRE, FNM, LEH, C, MER, CFC, WM, F, GM, AIG and WB. That’s a lot of powder.
Upon further reflection, this should be named the Britney Recession. Bail out, irresponsible behaviour, overspending, overrated, meltdown, seemed to have it all, no adults in charge, an inevitable crash in slow motion, daily new f-ups and exposures nsfw, in denial all the way down, used to be on top, inflated assets, transparency no longer desired, sign of the times. May I suggest a BW cover with a bull and Britney and the headline “what were they (we) thinking?”
These bozos were responsible for the rally in the markets the other day. So let’s subtract those points. All said and done the week was a draw.
as a non-native speaker I always use bigpicture together with the urbandictionary.
two questions remain:
1) Barry – east coast or west coast chronic?
2) can sb explain the why weed is called “chronic” (etymology?)
thanks!
____________________________
chronic (urbandictionary.com)
Chronic has two different definitions varying on your location.
East Coast: Weed (Marijuana) that is laced with Cocaine to give an added effect
West Coast: The finest weed available with no seeds or any shit
East: I’m feeling suicidal, lemme get some chronic
West:I’m looking to get some chronic, none of that crappy bullshit
S & P ratings people have a tremendous capacity for the obvious. Continuing with the “No shit Sherlock, where’d you get your first clue ?” category, rich investors who lost their ass in the 47% BSC meltdown today simply don’t generate sympathy because they leered at those of us who work for a living for so many years. Also, those poor bastards that keep calling a bottom to “whatever” (take your pick: Housing, money center bank stocks, hedge funds, bonds, etc.) are doing so because their salary depends on mendacious cheerleading, not objective truth telling. I feel sorry for people that work hard and are cheated out of their proper compensation through inflation and income taxes. I could care less for those responsible for the money manipulations, low capital gains taxes and get out of jail free cards losing their ass.
i agree with the White House and Fed trying to avoid another crash by any means necessary. can you imagine the fall out if there is a 20% drop in the Market the first year the Baby Boomers start to retire?
this is going to get real interesting real fast!
Micheal M.,
Great list of shorts!
DexterDew, that is the most pertinent question I have heard posed in many long months…
Great comparison of CPI in 1980 and 2008. It shows how we are being lied to.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4018.html
the hun, you are a complete imbecile
Chronic is a strain bred by Serious Seeds.
http://www.tokacola.com/cannabis-seeds/serious-seeds/index.html
its one of the most popular commercial strains around, and thats what people refer to when they say chronic. same goes for bubba kush or sour diesel. they are genetic strains
dumbass.
hi green,
thank you so much. the link was very helpful indeed. i will now try to figure out what “imbecile dumbass” means.
yours, the non smoking hun….
ah, GM & F will not be bailed out
ah, GM & F will not be bailed out
>> It’s another to enjoy the problems of others so much. This is a common theme I know, but I’m starting to think your problem is more than just attitude. I’m seriously starting to think you are a little off.
>> I don’t think the credibility you have worked so hard for is deserved at this point.
>> Posted by: cinefoz | Mar 14, 2008 3:04:47 PM
Cinefoz, you just went from arguing substance to an ad hominem attack, *after* events unfolded against you.
Sometimes the person with the negative outlook is the person perceiving truth more accurately. Can you not accept that?
Don’t come up with a new way to hate the messenger. I see this all the time in political circles. It’s not doing the country any good. And it won’t do your wallet any good either.
This blog used to be one where the bubble was recognized and reality was put it in perspective. Smart people appeared to congregate here and share perspectives on that theme.
Just about everywhere else, the common perception was ‘this time is different’ and ‘house prices will always go up’. and the like. As always, borrowing became so extensive that interest could not be paid and prices fell. All bubbles are like this.
I was in agreement with those who saw the bubble and sold at the very top, saving all my 2007 profits, which were all made by being conventional and going long. I buy at bottoms and sell at tops. The profits were significant and worth bragging rights even if the market didn’t fall, but not in the fairy tale range. I tried, and was successful at, replacing thinking with mob following
When the market finally fell, the tone here was one of a victory lap. It was deserved for many reasons. Even when it became a little excessive, it was acceptable. Nobody’s perfect and there was probably a reasonable desire to make a lot of smart asses eat their own shit. I would have probably done the same.
Today, the tone continues and now looks like one of excessive glee at every massive misfortune that follows. This makes me embarrassed to be associated here at this time. The apparent fact that this effect is unrecognized makes me think that Mr Ritholtz needs to talk to a third party and gain some perspective.
I don’t see many of the smart people who I recall used to post here. Maybe their existence is only a figment of my imagination. If not, maybe all that is left are the nuts and hangers on. The good ones have left because the content is repetitive, old news, obvious news, gleeful at misfortune, and not adding value to the community any longer.
Continuing … I wanted to break up my ideas into smaller pieces ..
The BSC fall is unusual because it signals vulnerability. If the Fed did not step in and provide a floor, the entire banking system would be folding like a house of cards or like a system of dominoes. Fortunately, all we have to do is wait it out until stability returns in a week or two.
This is a national security vulnerability. Regardless of if this vulnerability was acted upon by outsiders or if it was just an inevitable result of a bubble pop, it could have made 9-11 look small if it were deliberate and the Fed had not put an immediate rescue plan in place.
Personally, I hope a spook somewhere reads this and tries to figure out how to change the system so that speculative risk continues, but speculative frenzies don’t become so out of control that the pop can topple the entire US economy. Weren’t derivitives called weapons of mass destruction? I have to read that book now.
People are smart. mobs are stupid. This will happen again, only worse. It always does. What if a ‘friendly’ sovereign wealth fund provides the next fix of unlimited credit? A few bucks times 32x leverage could cause a lot of damage, and it would be from our own dollars coming back as ‘help’. All they would have to do is take away the crack and watch the fun.
Finally, to the morons here who don’t apparently understand concepts such as ‘going long’ and ‘buy at a bottom and sell at a top’ ….
You only lose money if you panic sell. I am patient and will wait. I will probably sell in a few weeks and have a single digit YTD profit percentage as a result. Extremely few people in the US will be able to claim making YTD profits this year at that point. I will be one of the very few making money.
Later I will invest again when another bout of despair hits the market. As a result, by being patient I will probably double or triple my earnings.
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to brag next year
WTF? If your going to edit my remarks, keep the context or remove them entirely.
Sorry … brain in gear now. The editing is ok.
You just removed insults to people who deserved it, but probably should have been restrained. I misunderstood the meaning of what you added as a replacement.
“I buy at bottoms and sell at tops.”
Posted by: cinefoz | Mar 15, 2008 8:35:06 AM
Cinefoz, you just never dissapoint me. Have you ever thought about posting your real name, or managing others money? I mean, the best traders in the world, cant even but the bottoms, and sell the tops.. BTW, does “boatloads of money” equal “single digit returns”? just curious, your message seems to have changed this month.. sorry BR for O/T thread, but I just love this guy…
B.B.
Hint to outer space .. this is a bottom.
The top is a bit nebulous. It might be S&P 1350 or it might approach S&P break even for 2008 if a bit of euphoria breaks out. You just set your exit point and go for it. If you are wrong, you still made money and didn’t have wait it out a second time. Your trade off is not making the absolute maximum. We’ll probably be there in a few weeks. But even if not, nothing is lost by waiting it out.
Regardless, even a one eyed, blind, idiot knows that it will drop again, and probably well before mid summer. This is called ‘making money’. If you can’t clearly make out these tops and bottoms ahead of time, then you should be in bank CDs.
cinefoz said: “You only lose money if you panic sell. I am patient and will wait. I will probably sell in a few weeks and have a single digit YTD profit percentage as a result.”
so you’re not marking to market? like BSC and others?? As for YTD %, I would think most of the TBP readers already are in double digits YTD.
cinefoz said: “Hint to outer space .. this is a bottom.”
I will bet you a dollar that you will have the opportunity to post 3-4 more messages that will read “ok, this is the real bottom” before summer arrives, and it still wouldn’t be the real bottom (unless nasdaq is around 1881, and dow is<10K, and these are my *minimum* thresholds to even think about "can this be a/the bottom?")
This market will not really bottom for quite sometime. You may get a bit of a rally again, but this thing is going to 11,000 for sure.
Cinefoz,
Thanks for giving me your investment advice! I dont know what I would do without it. I thought you had called the bottom last month, but I guess you meant this month. And now, the top will be around 1350?… hhmm, thats ok, I have done very well in the last 2 months, trading both sides of the coin. You see, I dont buy bottoms or sell tops, I am not as bright as you are. I just trade the middles in BOTH directions. So you keep up the ‘long’ good fight, cause I could really care less… ok, BR, sorry this will be my last post, I know you aren’t fond of this kind of give and take between posters.
This is what I mean about the idiot element that has infected this space.
>> The good ones have left because the content is repetitive, old news, obvious news, gleeful at misfortune, and not adding value to the community any longer.
>> Posted by: cinefoz | Mar 15, 2008 8:35:06 AM
Cinefoz, consider that a boom can — and almost always does — go for YEARS at a time. How long does a bust take?
The bust only started late last year. We’re at most 6 months into the correction. We’re at most 3 months into a real change in perspective. Considering the magnitude of the runup and how poor Leveraged Joe’s balance sheet is, why must the smart people on this board change their outlook now?
Some of them were early calling for problems. It appears they think it’s too early to call for a bottom. Should they instead just flip for the purpose of “being contrarian”? Most times, being “contrarian” isn’t profitable. It’s only profitable if you’re just an itsy-bit ahead of the herd’s change in perception.
Who’s right? I don’t know. But, I think you’re anywhere from 3-10 months too early with your judging other readers.