Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Oct Retail Sales surprise to upside even after taking out gasoline sales
2) 6 month outlook in both NY and Philly mfr’g indexes point to optimism
3) NY mfr’g current outlook a touch better then est
4) Initial Jobless Claims fall to 388k, 7k less than expected and the 4 week avg drops to lowest since Apr
5) Multi family construction permits rises to most since Oct ’08 in response to growing landlord pricing power
6) NAHB home builder index rises 3 pts to 20, 2 pts better than forecast and the best since May ’10
7) CPI recedes to 3.5% y/o/y from 3.9% but oil now $10 above Oct avg and rents moving higher
8) Japan’s Q3 GDP rebounds 6% after 3 Q’s in a row of contraction
Negatives:
1) Yields jump in Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, Finland and the Netherlands
2) Euro zone Q3 GDP up just .6% annualized but in line
3) German ZEW 6 month outlook falls to lowest since Oct ’08
4) Euro basis swap jumps 20 bps to highest since Dec ’08, US$ 3 mo LIBOR approaching most expensive since July ’09 and swap spreads rise to levels last seen in May ’10
5) Even with mortgage rates just a few bps from multi decade lows, refi’s fall 12.2% to 4 week low and purchases fall 2.3% but have no fear, Evans and Dudley of the Fed said lower rates from here will help
6) Not So Super Committee charade toying around over $1.2T of deficit reduction OVER 10 yrs in the context of a $15T economy and $60T of unfunded liabilities today
7) UK unemployment rate rises to 8.3%, the most since 1996
8) I saw Guns n Roses last night, Axl went on at 11pm, I got 3 1/2 hrs of sleep, I’m tired.
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