Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Dec Payrolls surprise to upside with 3rd 200kish print of yr, unemployment rate falls to 8.5% although in part due to another drop in labor force
2) Initial Jobless Claims 4 week avg drops to lowest since June ’08
3) US ISM mfr’g rises to best since June
4) US vehicle sales hang in with estimates
5) Mfr’g PMI in China, India, Australia, Taiwan and UK all rise from Nov
6) German unemployment rate falls to lowest since reunification in ’91 to 6.8%
7) UK and Indian PMI services rises to 5 month high and China’s jumps back over 50
8) Euro zone CPI moderates to 2.8% from 3.0%
9) Euro basis swap, US$ 3 mo LIBOR and euribor/ois spread all moderate as yr end funding stress eases
10) Van Halen announces 2012 tour
Negatives:
1) Bond yields continue higher in Europe, Italian 10 yr yield at 5 1/2 week high
2) Unicredit stock falls 38% after rights issue details are released. At what cost will the European banking system recap come to?
3) German Nov factory orders fall more than expected
4) EC economic confidence falls to lowest since Nov ’09
5) US ISM services a touch light, employment component remains below 50 and doesn’t confirm jobs data pace of growth
6) Refi apps fall 2.5% and purchases down by 9.6% even as mortgage rates fall to new low and the Fed’s Dudley still thinks that even lower rates is the magic solution
7) US Dec retail sales below expectations and margins get clipped.
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